Dan Quinn's Washington lost 22-24 in Philadelphia and 20-37 in Dallas before beating Seattle 33-31 last week. That adds up to 25.0 points scored and 30.7 conceded per game, and all three Washington games have produced at least 46 points. Jayden Daniels is ruled out after dislocating his left elbow in Dallas, so Marcus Mariota makes his second straight start. He has four touchdown passes and no interceptions so far, three of the touchdowns coming against Seattle. Guard Sam Cosmi, safety Nick Cross and running back Rachaad White are out, while Terry McLaurin (hamstring) is questionable. The defence has been solid against the run but has allowed an opposing passer rating of 124.4, the worst in the league.
Shane Steichen's Colts opened with a 23-41 home loss to Baltimore and a 30-33 overtime defeat in Kansas City, before edging Houston 19-17 thanks to a 53-yard field goal from Spencer Shrader late in the game. They average 24.0 points scored and 30.3 conceded. Jonathan Taylor has 258 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while Daniel Jones has three touchdown passes, three interceptions and five turnovers in total. Indianapolis has not ruled anyone out, but Keenan Allen and Ashton Dulin are questionable and Alec Pierce is on injured reserve. Defensively, the Colts rank last in the league in yards allowed and have yet to record an interception.
The teams last met in October 2022, when Washington won 17-16 in Indianapolis. Both rosters and quarterback situations have changed since then, so we put little weight on the head-to-head record. The matchup between the units matters more. Washington's run defence is among the league's best, which could push the Colts towards Jones and the passing game, exactly where Washington has been most vulnerable. On the other side, Mariota faces a Colts defence ranked 30th against the pass. Washington's three games have produced 46, 57 and 64 points, Indianapolis's 64, 63 and 36. The Colts also have recent experience of playing abroad, having beaten Atlanta 31-25 in overtime in Berlin last season.
There are clear risks. Washington is relying on a backup quarterback, may be without McLaurin and is short at running back, which could make the offence slower and more conservative. Jones' turnovers can end drives, Washington's run defence could stall Taylor, and the travel and unusual kickoff time can affect both teams' rhythm. We have chosen the total rather than a side because the strongest evidence in this game concerns the two defences rather than who wins. The spread around 3.5 points looks fair, and with Mariota under centre the outcome is harder to call than the scoring environment.
Paddy Power has the total at 46.5 with the over priced at 2.00, which implies a 50 percent chance. Other bookmakers have the line around 47.5 at close to even money, so here we get a lower line at a similar price. With both teams conceding more than 30 points per game, we rate the chance of 47 or more points at around 54 percent, which makes the price look good value. If the line moves up before kickoff, much of that value disappears. That is why we are backing over 46.5 points.
Betting tip: Over 46.5 points @ 2.00 (Paddy Power)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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