Wales have not won in six matches in 2026. The year began with a 1-1 draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina at home in March, when the World Cup play-off was lost 4-2 on penalties. Since then they have drawn 1-1 with Northern Ireland and Ghana at home and lost 2-1 in Romania. The Nations League campaign has brought a 1-0 defeat to Portugal in Lisbon, decided by a deflected João Félix shot, and a 2-0 loss to Denmark in Copenhagen, where Ben Davies scored an own goal before Gustav Isaksen added the second. Bellamy is without several regulars. Harry Wilson (quad), goalkeeper Karl Darlow and Nathan Broadhead withdrew injured, and Joe Rodon and Dylan Lawlor are also missing.
Norway beat Denmark 3-2 in Oslo on matchday one, with Oscar Bobb scoring and Erling Haaland adding two. Three days later they lost 2-1 at home to Portugal. Haaland equalised, but a mistake by goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland gifted Gonçalo Ramos the winner. Haaland now has 65 goals in 57 internationals, and he scored both goals in the 2-1 World Cup win over Brazil in the last 16. Alexander Sørloth is out with a muscle injury. Captain Martin Ødegaard sprained his ankle after a late tackle from Bernardo Silva. According to the latest reports on Tuesday, X-rays showed no serious damage and he has travelled to Cardiff, but his involvement is still uncertain. This is also Norway's third match in eight days, with a trip to Portugal on Sunday.
The sides have met 11 times, with three Welsh wins, four draws and four Norwegian wins. The last meeting was a friendly in Cardiff in November 2011, which Wales won 4-1, so history says little about this match. The match profile matters more. Norway have scored and conceded in each of their last seven matches, from the 3-2 win over Senegal at the World Cup to the defeat to Portugal, and six of those seven had at least three goals after 90 minutes. Wales are likely to sit deep, and both goals in Copenhagen came from set pieces, a weakness Norway can exploit with Haaland in the box.
The risks are clear. Only one of Wales' last six matches had more than two goals, and they have not scored in the Nations League. If Wales keep it tight and Norway rotate, a 1-0 or 2-0 is a realistic outcome. We looked at a Norway win and at both teams to score. The win is priced around 1.53, but tired legs, possible rotation and three 1-1 draws in Wales' last three home games make it less attractive at that price. Both teams to score, around 1.70, depends on Wales finding a goal, which they have not managed for two matches.
Pinnacle's 1.57 on over 2.5 goals is at the top of the range we have seen, with most prices around 1.50-1.57. The price implies a probability of about 64 per cent. Norway's recent games have been open at both ends, and Haaland gives them a goal threat against any defence. For the bet to win, Norway do not need to win the match; three goals from either side are enough. That's why we're backing over 2.5 goals in Cardiff.
Betting tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.57 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Wednesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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