Villarreal sit tenth in La Liga with 12 points from ten matches. Their league form has steadied after a 1-0 defeat at Real Madrid: a goalless home draw with Elche was followed by a 2-1 win at Valencia. The schedule is demanding. Villarreal lost a wild 4-3 game at Liverpool in the Champions League on 20 October and play PSG at home next Tuesday. Pape Gueye is suspended after his red card in Valencia, Nathan Saliba is injured and Ilias Akhomach is, according to reports, unlikely to make it after being forced off at Mestalla.
Espanyol are in a far worse place. They are 18th with eight points and without a league win in five games, a run that includes a 1-1 draw at Málaga and defeats to Atlético Madrid (0-1) and Racing de Santander (1-2). On Tuesday they were knocked out of the Copa del Rey after a 4-3 extra-time defeat to fourth-tier Sestao River, and Manolo González was dismissed hours later. Eder Sarabia has been appointed as his successor but will not be on the bench on Friday; reserve-team coach Sergio García takes charge. Forward Kike García and winger Jofre Carreras are both out injured.
History favours the home side. Villarreal have won each of the last five league meetings, including 4-1 at La Cerámica in February and 2-0 in Barcelona last November, and according to reports the run stretches to seven straight wins. Those games tell us something about the shape of this fixture, though: three of the five finished with three goals or fewer, and Espanyol's attack has rarely troubled Villarreal. An interim coach with a fragile squad is more likely to prioritise compactness than to open the game up.
The main risk is an early Villarreal goal that forces Espanyol out, turning the evening into the kind of open contest we saw at Anfield. Villarreal concede chances, and Espanyol did score three in the cup on Tuesday, albeit over 120 minutes against fourth-tier opposition. We have chosen the total-goals market rather than the 1X2 because the home win is priced short, and because rotation ahead of PSG could blunt Villarreal's attack. Under 3.5 rather than Under 2.5 gives us cover for the most likely winning scorelines, such as 2-1, while the bet only loses if the match produces four goals or more.
At OddsCapo, Under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.72 with Coolbet, an implied probability of 58.1 per cent. Our own estimate is roughly 64-65 per cent, based on both sides' recent scoring levels, the expected rotation in the home side and an Espanyol team likely to play for damage limitation. That's why we're backing Under 3.5 goals at the Cerámica.
Betting tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.72 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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