Udinese have collected just five points from nine league games and are winless in seven, with their only victory coming at Monza on 29 August. Kosta Runjaic's side have lost their last four home matches against Lazio, Cagliari, Lecce and AC Milan, scoring only twice in five games at the Bluenergy Stadium. The 0-0 draw at Parma in midweek at least stopped the bleeding, and Runjaic described the point as important for the players' heads. The squad remains stretched: Solet, Bayo, Zanoli and Alaba are all ruled out, while Runjaic admits that Keinan Davis and Nicolo Zaniolo are playing without being fully fit.
Roma have won six and drawn three, scoring 23 goals in nine league games. They come into this game on short rest, though. The 3-3 draw in Naples was followed by a 4-2 home win over Cagliari in midweek, and a Champions League trip to Manchester United awaits on 3 November. Mile Svilar, Manu Kone, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Paulo Dybala are all missing from the travelling squad, and Gasperini chose not to hold a press conference before the trip, according to reports in the Roman press.
Roma have won most recent meetings, but Udinese won 1-0 at home in February, ending a long run of Roma wins in the fixture. The more relevant pattern for us is how these teams start matches. Udinese have led at half-time only once in five home games this season and have scored a single first-half goal in front of their own fans. Roma concede very little early on, just two first-half goals in nine league games, but away from home they have been level or behind at the break in two of four outings, including at Como and Napoli. Much of their damage is done after the interval: 14 of their 23 league goals have come in the second half.
The main risk is obvious. Roma are a far better side, and an early goal could sink the bet. Matias Soule and Donyell Malen can also decide a game in a single moment. Even so, we prefer the half-time market to a straight Roma win. A tired Roma side with one eye on Old Trafford may control the tempo rather than chase the game, while Udinese, short of confidence, are likely to sit deep and protect the scoreline for as long as possible. That's why we're backing a draw at half-time rather than paying a short price for a Roma win.
A draw at half-time is priced at 2.66 at Pinnacle, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 37.6 per cent. Based on the expected goal level in the first half, Udinese's defensive approach at home and Roma's tendency to finish games stronger than they start them, we estimate the chance of a level score at the break at around 41 per cent. That is a modest edge rather than a large one, but in a match where the favourite is short on rest and the underdog rarely attacks early, we think the price is fair value.
Betting tip: Draw at half-time @ 2.66 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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