Udinese started the season with a 1-1 draw against Como and a 3-2 win at Monza, but since then it has been defeat after defeat: 1-2 against Lazio, 3-5 at Inter, 0-1 against Cagliari, 1-2 at Torino and 0-3 at home to Lecce last weekend. Kosta Runjaic's side have four points from seven games and a 9-16 goal difference, and according to Italian reports the coach is under pressure. The pattern is striking: seven of Udinese's nine league goals have come before the break, while ten of the 16 they have conceded came after it. At half-time they have been ahead twice, level four times and behind only once. David Alaba is still sidelined, while Nicolò Zaniolo and Abankwah are reportedly back in contention.
Milan are fifth on 15 points with four wins and three draws, scoring 14 and conceding seven. The second half has been their strength: only three of those 14 goals came before the interval. Away from San Siro they have not led at half-time in any of their four league games, going in 0-0 at Torino, Juventus and Sassuolo and 0-2 down at Lazio. The squad is also stretched. According to reports, Adrien Rabiot, Mario Gila and Diego Moreira all miss Sunday's game, and Samuel Chukwueze has a hip problem. Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are out long-term. Gonçalo Ramos was rested on Thursday as a precaution and is reported to be back in training.
Thursday's trip to the south coast of England went badly. Milan conceded two penalties, were 2-0 down at half-time and had Mike Maignan sent off after 27 minutes, which meant more than an hour with ten men three days before this game. History favours the visitors, who won 4-0 and 3-0 on their last two visits to Udine. Matteo Marcenaro is the referee. We expect a compact Udinese side defending deep and a Milan team that needs time to find its rhythm after a demanding week.
The biggest risk is an early goal. Milan still have the quality to break a game open, and Udinese have not exactly been watertight. Their first halves have also been lively at times, with 2-2 at Inter and 3-1 at Monza at the break. One unanswered goal before the interval is enough to sink the bet. That's why we chose the half-time market instead of backing Milan to win outright. The full-time price on Milan does not leave much room for the absences and the fatigue, while the half-time draw is based on a clear pattern: both teams have been level at the break in four of seven league games this season.
The half-time draw is available at 2.33 at Betinia, which gives an implied probability of 42.9 per cent. We put the chance at around 45 per cent, based on Milan's slow starts away from home, a reshuffled midfield and Udinese's need to stay in the game for as long as possible. The edge is not big, and the samples are small, but the price is fair and we think it is slightly too generous.
Betting tip: Draw at half-time @ 2.33 (Betinia)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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