Klopp took over after Julian Nagelsmann stepped down following the World Cup, where Germany topped their group but went out in the round of 32 on penalties against Paraguay. His start has been modest: a 1-1 draw in Amsterdam, where Felix Nmecha's goal was cancelled out by Cody Gakpo in stoppage time, and a 0-1 home loss to Greece in Augsburg, decided by Dimitrios Kourbelis after 74 minutes. Klopp is using two separate squads in this window, and only six players remain from the first group. Joshua Kimmich is not with the squad, while Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz are out injured. Florian Wirtz is expected to play as the number 10, and Jonas Urbig is expected to make his debut in goal, according to German reports.
Serbia arrive with two home defeats, both 1-2 in Belgrade. Andrija Živković put them ahead after four minutes against Greece before late goals from Christos Tzolis and Anastasios Douvikas turned the match. Against the Netherlands, Luka Jović equalised right after the break, but Mexx Meerdink scored twice. The wider picture is worse: one win in six matches, with 3-0 defeats to Spain and Cape Verde and a 5-1 loss in Mexico. Veljko Paunović is also without centre-back Strahinja Pavlović, who picked up a muscle strain against the Netherlands, while Nikola Milenković and Aleksandar Mitrović are injured. There is still quality going forward in Dušan Vlahović, Sergej Milinković-Savić and Dušan Tadić.
The recent history is thin. The last meeting was a 1-1 friendly in Wolfsburg in March 2019, and Serbia won 1-0 when the sides met at the 2010 World Cup. On the pitch, Germany will have most of the ball. The Greece game showed that a compact, deep block can frustrate them, but Serbia have conceded at least two goals in five of their last six matches and lost three of those six by three goals or more.
The main risk is Germany's own attack. They have scored once in two games under Klopp, and this is a heavily rotated line-up with several expected debutants and little time together. A 1-0 or 2-1 win is a real possibility, and that would lose this bet. Serbia have also scored in four of their last six games, so Germany may need three goals to clear the line. We still prefer the handicap over the alternatives. A straight Germany win, Germany −1 and over 2.5 goals are all priced very short, and they add little on top of what we believe is the likeliest outcome: a German win by two or more goals.
Germany −1.5 on the Asian handicap means Germany must win by at least two goals. The price is around 1.71–1.82 on the market, and Coolbet offers 1.71, which implies a probability of about 58 per cent. Given Serbia's defensive record, their missing centre-back and Germany's home advantage, we think that price is fair. That's why we're backing Germany to win by two or more goals, while accepting that Klopp's new side has yet to prove it can turn possession into goals.
Betting tip: Germany −1.5 (Asian handicap) @ 1.71 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Wednesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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