Türkiye lost 1-0 at home to France in Kocaeli on Friday, with Kylian Mbappé scoring the winner after 54 minutes. The defeat was costly. Goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır was sent off late on and is suspended, so Altay Bayındır is expected to start. Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are also out injured, and Orkun Kökçü is a doubt. That removes much of the creativity around Arda Güler. Türkiye went out of the World Cup in the group stage with three points and a 3-5 goal difference, and five of their last seven matches finished with two goals or fewer.
Italy are in no better shape. Mancini's return started with a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico, where Italy had 21 shots but failed to score. Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli are injured, Nicolò Zaniolo is missing, and according to the Italian federation Nicolò Barella stayed at Coverciano rather than travel to Türkiye. Alessandro Bastoni returns from suspension. Italy missed a third straight World Cup after losing a play-off on penalties to Bosnia and Herzegovina, and five of their last six matches went under 2.5 goals.
History favours Italy, as Türkiye have never beaten them. The most recent meetings were a 0-0 friendly in Bologna in June 2024 and a 3-0 Italy win in the opening game of Euro 2020. The match-up still points to a tight game. Both teams are without key playmakers, both are struggling to score, and defeat would leave the loser three points behind both France and Belgium. That usually makes for a cautious start.
There are risks. Both teams need a win, and an early goal could open the game up. Italy's back line is makeshift, Bayındır has limited international experience, and referee Michael Oliver is not afraid to award penalties. We ruled out the 1X2 market because the odds are close and both teams have clear weaknesses. We think under 2.5 goals is the bet that best reflects where these teams are right now.
OddsCapo shows under 2.5 goals at 2.21 with Pinnacle, with over 2.5 at 1.70. In the 1X2 market the prices on Türkiye and Italy are almost identical, which shows how even the game is considered to be. The market expects more goals than the form of the two teams suggests. With neither side scoring in their opener and so many attacking players missing, we see value in a price above 2.0.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.21 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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