Despite a summer outlay of more than £300 million, with Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes and Savio among the arrivals, Roberto De Zerbi's side have three points from six games: three draws and three defeats. They have scored only three league goals and conceded nine, and at home they have collected one point from three matches, losing to Newcastle (0-2) and Aston Villa (2-3) and drawing 0-0 with Everton. The 1-1 at Old Trafford, where Dominic Solanke headed a stoppage-time equaliser, gave some encouragement, but it came at a cost: Rodrigo Bentancur was sent off and now starts a three-match ban. Savio (muscle) and Lucas Bergvall (knee) are new injuries, Pedro Porro is not expected to be fit, and Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert and Mykhaylo Mudryk remain sidelined. Dejan Kulusevski is set to return to the bench after more than 500 days out.
Frank Lampard's Coventry are back in the top flight after 25 years. They opened with four defeats without scoring, including 0-3 at Arsenal and 0-5 at home to Brighton, but have since won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and beaten Newcastle 4-1, their first home Premier League win in more than a quarter of a century. Teenage striker Sidiki Cherif, signed from Fenerbahçe in the summer, scored one and set up another against Newcastle, and Taiwo Awoniyi is available again after a three-match suspension. Kaine Kesler-Hayden has recovered from a hamstring problem, but Luke Woolfenden, Aurèle Amenda, Josh Eccles and Haji Wright are all unavailable. Away from home Coventry have scored just once in three league games, and Lampard himself has warned that his side face a difficult season.
According to reports, Spurs have won the last five meetings between the clubs, but the sides have not met in the league since 2001. The most recent game was a League Cup tie in September 2024, when Tottenham needed late goals from Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson to win 2-1 at Coventry. Expect Spurs to have most of the ball. De Zerbi has said he wants his team to create around 20 chances a game rather than the eight or nine they have been managing, and Tottenham's problem so far has been the end product rather than territory. Coventry are likely to defend deep and look for Cherif's running on the break.
The risks are clear. Tottenham have far more individual quality, James Maddison could make his first league start of the season, and Coventry have been badly exposed by stronger opponents, as the results against Arsenal and Brighton showed. That is why we are not backing a Coventry win, which requires a lot to go right. Coventry City +1 on the Asian handicap wins if Coventry win or draw, returns the stake if Tottenham win by exactly one goal, and only loses if Spurs win by two or more, something they have not done in a single league match this season.
Coventry City +1 is priced at 2.02 at Coolbet via OddsCapo. We rate Coventry's chance of avoiding defeat at around 46 per cent, with a further 24 per cent for a one-goal Tottenham win and a refund. Excluding the push, that gives the bet around a 60 per cent chance of winning, clearly above the roughly even chance the price implies. The market still prices Spurs on their squad and underlying numbers; we think their lack of cutting edge and long injury list deserve more weight.
Betting tip: Coventry City +1 @ 2.02 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
18+ | Gamble responsibly | Stodlinjen.se
