Torino have found their feet under Ignazio Abate after a rough start. Defeats to Milan and Sassuolo, both 2-1, were followed by a 2-1 win in Florence, and after a home loss to Roma and a draw in Bologna the team have now won two in a row: 2-1 against Udinese and 3-0 at Parma, where Giovanni Simeone scored twice. That leaves Torino on 10 points from seven games with a 10-9 goal difference. They have also been one of the cleanest sides in the division, picking up only five or six yellow cards in seven league matches depending on the source, and no reds. Ricardo Rodriguez, Emirhan Ilkhan and Franco Israel are reported as unavailable, while Niccolo Fortini is a doubt.
Monza came up through the play-offs and appointed Juric in the summer. His side have been lively but leaky: 13 goals scored and 15 conceded for seven points, with Gustavo Varela on six league goals, two of them in Monday's 4-0 win over Cagliari. Juric teams press man to man and accept a lot of individual duels, and Monza have collected more bookings than Torino, around nine to eleven yellows and one red in seven games according to the latest data. Lorenzo Lucchesi is available again after a suspension, while Matteo Pessina, Idrissa Toure and Jan Ziolkowski are reported injured. Monza also have only four days between Monday's game and this one.
The most recent meeting was that Coppa Italia tie on 1 September, which Monza won 1-0 in Turin. In Serie A the last four meetings ended 1-1, 1-0 to Torino, 1-1 and 2-0 to Torino at Monza, so these games have tended to be tight and low on goals. Tactically, Torino's 3-5-2 against Monza's 3-4-2-1 creates a lot of one-against-one battles across the pitch. The referee will be Matteo Marchetti, who replaced the originally appointed Andrea Zanotti on Thursday. Marchetti averaged between 3.2 and 3.8 yellow cards per Serie A game last season over 13 matches, depending on the source, but his only top-flight game so far this season, Frosinone against Sassuolo, produced just one booking.
The main risk is that the referee's history points higher than the two teams' own numbers. Marchetti's previous-season average is close to the line, and Juric's return to Turin adds some emotional edge. A red card, a second yellow or a frantic final 20 minutes with one side chasing the game could quickly push the total past three. Small samples are a factor too: seven league games is not much to build on. Check the bookmaker's rules on how red cards are counted. We prefer the 3.5 line to 4.5, where the price is too short to offer any value.
At OddsCapo, Under 3.5 cards is priced at 1.82 with Bet365, which implies a probability of around 55 per cent. Combining Torino's low booking rate this season and Monza's somewhat higher one with Marchetti's higher figure from last season, we put the chance of three cards or fewer at roughly 60 per cent. It is a thin edge rather than a big one, but that's why we're backing Under 3.5 cards in Turin.
Betting tip: Under 3.5 cards @ 1.82 (Bet365)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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