Czechia reached the World Cup via the play-offs but finished bottom of their group with one point: 2-1 defeat to South Korea, 1-1 against South Africa and 3-0 defeat to Mexico. Two goals in three games. After the tournament Miroslav Koubek resigned, and Spaniard Santi Denia took over at the end of July. He has a tough start. Patrik Schick has retired from international football, and six players have been replaced in the squad because of injury, among them Tomáš Chorý, David Jurásek, Lukáš Provod and Robin Zima. Hopes rest on players such as Pavel Šulc, Adam Hložek and Ladislav Krejčí.
Croatia were far better at the World Cup. After a 4-2 defeat to England in their opener, they beat Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1 before going out 2-1 to Portugal in the round of 32. Zlatko Dalić has left and Slaven Bilić is back for a second spell as head coach. Luka Modrić, now 41, remains in the squad alongside Joško Gvardiol, Mateo Kovačić, Andrej Kramarić and Ante Budimir. Martin Erlić and Josip Juranović have withdrawn, which thins out the back line a little.
The teams have met six times and Czechia have never won: Croatia have two wins and four games ended in a draw. Last year Croatia won 5-1 in Osijek in World Cup qualifying, while the return in Prague in October ended 0-0. The likely pattern is Croatia seeing more of the ball with Modrić and Kovačić in midfield, while a Czechia side without Schick lacks an obvious goalscorer. Czechia have also failed to win any of their last five competitive games.
There are risks. Croatia play Spain in Seville three days later, so Bilić may rotate. Both coaches are in charge for the first time, and a new man can give a lift – perhaps especially to a Czechia side with a home crowd behind them. Four draws in six meetings also shows that this fixture is often close. We still prefer a straight away win on the 1X2 market to a handicap. Croatia ±0 on the Asian handicap only pays 1.60, and we think Croatia's greater quality outweighs the changes in the Czech camp.
The best price on Croatia to win is 2.20 with Interwetten, and other bookmakers are at roughly the same level, around 2.18–2.20. That implies a probability of about 45 per cent. Given Czechia's poor form, Schick's absence and the long injury list, we think Croatia should be a little closer to 50 per cent, which makes the price interesting.
Betting tip: Croatia to win @ 2.20 (Interwetten)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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