Czechia have a new head coach in Spain's Santi Denia, who won Olympic gold with Spain in 2024 and is the country's first foreign coach. His first game ended in a 2-1 home defeat to Croatia. Luka Modrić put Croatia ahead, Adam Karabec equalised and Marco Pašalić won it with a quarter of an hour left. Adam Hložek also had an equaliser ruled out for offside after a VAR check. The squad is thin. Patrik Schick has retired from international football after the World Cup, Tomáš Souček is injured and several players withdrew before the camp. Czechia went out of the World Cup in the group stage with one point.
England finished third at the World Cup, beating France 6-4 in the bronze match, but started the Nations League with a 3-2 defeat to Spain at Wembley. Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane turned 0-1 into 2-1 before half-time, Kane hit the bar with a penalty, and Spain came back after the break. Thomas Tuchel is without Cole Palmer, Declan Rice, Kobbie Mainoo, Marcus Rashford and Tino Livramento, who all withdrew injured. Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Gordon remain in attack.
What stands out is that England keep conceding. Both teams have scored in each of England's last six matches, and England have not kept a clean sheet in any of them. Their midfield is also without Rice and Mainoo, who usually protect the back line. Czechia scored against Croatia and will have the home crowd behind them. In recent meetings, Czechia beat England 2-1 in Prague in October 2019, while England won 5-0 in March that year and 1-0 at Euro 2020.
The biggest risk is that Czechia have very few goal threats without Schick and won only one corner against Croatia. If Denia sets up deep, England could win without conceding. We still ruled out an England win at 1.40, which offers little return, and a handicap, because England's defence has not been solid. Both teams to score fits best with how these sides have played.
OddsCapo shows both teams to score: yes at 2.07 with Coolbet. That price implies a probability of just under 50 per cent. With England conceding in six straight games and a home crowd behind Czechia, we think it is a fair price with some value. England are 1.40 to win and Czechia 9.00, so the market sees England as clear favourites, but that does not mean England will keep a clean sheet.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 2.07 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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