Sweden reached the World Cup through the play-offs in March, beating Ukraine 3-1 in Valencia and Poland 3-2 at home. The tournament itself was mixed: a big win over Tunisia, a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands, 1-1 against Japan and a 3-0 loss to France in the round of 32. Add the June friendlies against Norway (1-3) and Greece (2-2), and Sweden have won just one of their last six. Graham Potter admitted this week that his side have not kept a clean sheet in ten matches under him. Up front, though, the quality is obvious. Potter hinted that Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres will both start, with captain Victor Nilsson Lindelöf at the back. Isak Hien, Anthony Elanga and Dejan Kulusevski are out, and according to SVT, Gustaf Lagerbielke (groin) and Besfort Zeneli (foot) will also miss Friday's game.
Romania have had a turbulent spring. They lost their World Cup play-off semi-final 1-0 in Turkey in March, Mircea Lucescu stepped down and died in April, and Hagi came back for a second spell in charge. His first two games were June friendlies: 1-1 away to Georgia and 2-1 at home to Wales. Friday is his first competitive match. The squad relies on experienced players such as Nicolae Stanciu, Răzvan Marin and Dennis Man, with Radu Drăgușin at centre-back and Ianis Hagi in attack. According to the latest reports, Florinel Coman, Adrian Rus and Denis Drăguș are unavailable. Romania are winless in their last six away games.
Both teams won promotion from League C last time. Romania won all six of their games, and Sweden won their group unbeaten. The recent head-to-head record favours Sweden, who won 2-1 in Solna and 2-0 in Bucharest in the Euro 2020 qualifiers in 2019. Older fans will also remember the 1994 World Cup quarter-final that Sweden won on penalties, but that was a different era. On the pitch, Sweden's strike pair of Isak and Gyökeres will test a Romania defence still learning Hagi's ideas. At the other end, Sweden's shaky defending gives Romania a real chance to score on the counter.
The biggest risk is Sweden's own defence. A team that concedes in almost every game can turn a comfortable lead into a nervy finish, and Romania's experienced midfield can keep the game tight. Rotation is another factor: Sweden play four games in eleven days, and Potter has said Isak will not play every minute. That's why we're backing Sweden −1 on the Asian handicap rather than a straight home win. If Sweden win by two goals or more, the bet wins. If they win by exactly one goal, you get your stake back. A draw or a Romania win means the bet loses.
The best price for Sweden −1 is 1.82 with Coolbet, while the other side, Romania +1, is priced at 2.08. A straight Sweden win (or −0.5) pays only 1.52 at Bethard, and Over 2.5 goals at 1.64 shows the market expects goals. At home, with Isak and Gyökeres up against a Romania side that struggles on the road, we think a win by two goals or more is a bit more likely than 1.82 suggests. If Sweden win by only one goal, the stake comes back.
Betting tip: Sweden −1 (Asian handicap) @ 1.82 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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