Sweden beat Romania 2-1 in Solna on Friday. Alexander Isak opened the scoring after 20 minutes, Dennis Man equalised, and Viktor Gyökeres scored the winner shortly before half-time. Sweden also had a goal from Elliot Stroud ruled out by VAR for handball. The concern is at the back. Emil Holm was carried off on a stretcher with a suspected hamstring injury, and Potter said it did not look particularly positive. Anthony Elanga and Isak Hien were already missing from the squad, and Carl Starfelt was taken off as a precaution against Romania.
Poland drew 0-0 at home to Bosnia and Herzegovina in Warsaw. Jan Urban's side switched to a back three and created chances through Sebastian Szymański, Matty Cash and Piotr Zieliński, but Bosnia goalkeeper Nikola Zlomislić saved everything. Robert Lewandowski started but did not score, while Zieliński won his 110th cap, the second most in Polish history. Poland also lost Jakub Kamiński, who went off injured after 24 minutes and has left the squad. Eighteen-year-old Oskar Pietuszewski of Porto has been called up instead. Poland did not qualify for the World Cup after losing the play-off final in Solna.
That final on 31 March was a typical Sweden-Poland game: Anthony Elanga and Gabriel Lagerbielke scored for Sweden, Poland equalised twice, and Gyökeres won it 3-2 in the 88th minute. Sweden also won 3-2 at Euro 2020, while Poland won the 2022 play-off 2-0. With Isak and Gyökeres both scoring on Friday, Sweden have a clear edge in attacking quality against a Poland side that did not score against Bosnia and is now without one of its most direct wingers.
The risks are real. Sweden's defence is weakened, and it is their second game in four days. At the World Cup they conceded five against the Netherlands and three against France, so they can be exposed by good opponents. Poland's new back three kept a clean sheet on Friday, and Lewandowski only needs one chance. That is why we are not backing a handicap. A straight Sweden win at even money gives enough margin for the uncertainty in defence.
OddsCapo shows Sweden to win at 2.02 with Expekt, with the draw at 3.90 and Poland at 4.00. The price implies about a 50 per cent chance of a home win. With home advantage, the win in March at the same ground and a Poland side that has lost Kamiński and failed to score in its opener, we think that is a fair price, with some value.
Betting tip: Sweden to win @ 2.02 (Expekt)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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