Sebastian Hoeneß's side have been far more convincing in Europe than at home. They opened with a 3-1 win against Viking and followed up with a 3-0 victory away at Slovan Bratislava last week, with Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirović among the scorers. The Bundesliga is a different story: two wins and four defeats from six matches leave Stuttgart in the bottom half of the table, and on Saturday they lost 1-0 in Hamburg despite creating more chances than their hosts. The absentee list is long. Dan-Axel Zagadou, Tiago Tomás and Justin Diehl are out, while Maximilian Mittelstädt, Nikolas Nartey and Ameen Al-Dakhil are either sidelined or short of match fitness, according to reports. There is also uncertainty in goal, where Fabian Bredlow could replace Dennis Seimen.
Atlético have not lost since a 2-1 defeat at Liverpool on the opening matchday. Since then they have won six in a row, including a 2-0 home win over Manchester United in the Champions League, a derby win over Real Madrid and a 1-0 win at Espanyol on Saturday, settled late by Álex Baena. They are second in La Liga, five points behind Barcelona, with 19 goals scored and eight conceded in nine league games. More relevant for this match: four of those six straight wins came without conceding. Simeone is without Koke (thigh) and centre-back Cristian Romero, who picked up a muscle strain against Espanyol. Johnny Cardoso is back after illness and Julián Álvarez leads a deep attacking group.
The two clubs have never met in a competitive fixture. Stuttgart's record against Spanish opposition in this competition is poor, with no wins in their last seven Champions League games against La Liga clubs, according to reports. Stuttgart like to press high and play in the opposition half, and they have created plenty in recent weeks, but finishing has let them down domestically. Atlético are comfortable defending deep and breaking quickly through Giuliano Simeone and Baena. Both teams have scored in only two of Stuttgart's last six matches, and in only two of Atlético's last six.
The obvious risk is Stuttgart's European profile. They have reportedly conceded in each of their last 13 home Champions League games, and the league phase as a whole has produced plenty of goals. Romero's absence also weakens Atlético's back line, and one goal at each end is all it takes to sink this bet. Still, we prefer "Both teams to score: No" to a straight Atlético win. The away win is priced roughly where we rate it, and Atlético have won only one of their last six Champions League away games, according to reports. This market pays out on any Atlético win to nil, any Stuttgart win to nil and a goalless draw, which fits the pattern in both teams' recent games.
OddsCapo's best price on "Both teams to score: No" is 2.93 at Bethard, which implies a probability of about 34 per cent. The market clearly expects goals at both ends. We rate the chance closer to 38 per cent: Atlético have kept four clean sheets in their last six games, Stuttgart have drawn a blank in two of their last four league matches, and Atlético's absences in midfield are more likely to make them cautious than open. That's why we're backing both teams not to score at 2.93. At a long price it will lose more often than it wins, but in our view the odds overstate the chance of goals at both ends.
Betting tip: Both teams to score: No @ 2.93 (Bethard)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Tuesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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