Spain arrive in Asturias in the kind of form that matches their status. Less than three months after beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the World Cup final, Luis de la Fuente's side opened the Nations League with a 3-2 win at Wembley and a 4-1 home win over Croatia in Seville. Lamine Yamal has three goals and an assist in those two games. Against Croatia, Spain had 64 per cent of the ball and out-shot the visitors 16-5, and according to several sources the team is now unbeaten in around 40 matches. Alejandro Grimaldo has withdrawn injured and been replaced by Fran García, and according to reports Pedro Porro and Eric García are also unavailable.
Czechia are in a very different place. They went out at the group stage of the World Cup without a win, and Miroslav Koubek has since been replaced by Spaniard Santi Denia, a former Spain youth coach. His first two games ended in home defeats: 1-2 against Croatia and 0-2 against England, the latter after Pavel Šulc was sent off after 25 minutes. That makes it five games without a win, with a 3-10 goal difference. Šulc is suspended on Saturday, Patrik Schick has stepped away from international football and Tomáš Souček is injured. Vladimír Coufal missed the England game through injury, and Adam Karabec is a doubt after going off before half-time in Prague.
History is firmly on Spain's side. The two nations have met seven times since Czechia became independent, with five Spanish wins, two draws and an aggregate score of 10-3. One pattern stands out, though: Spain have never beaten Czechia by more than two goals, and their last meeting in Spain, in the 2022 Nations League, ended 2-0. Those Czech teams were, however, considerably stronger than the current one. The expected picture is familiar: Spain dominating possession while Czechia sit deep and look to counter. Without Schick and Šulc, the visitors lack both their established striker and one of their key creative players, which makes it hard to see where their goals will come from.
The biggest risk is rotation. Spain play four games in eleven days and travel to Croatia on Tuesday, so de la Fuente may rest key players. Czechia also kept the score down for long spells with ten men against England, with goalkeeper Matěj Kovář among their best players. That's why we have chosen the Asian handicap Spain −2 rather than a straight Spain win at 1.10, which offers too little return for the risk involved. The −2 line works like this: if Spain win by three goals or more, the bet wins; if they win by exactly two, the stake is returned; any other result – a one-goal win, a draw or a Czech win – means the bet loses. The refund on a two-goal win offers some protection against a typical 2-0, which matters given that Spain have never beaten Czechia by three or more.
10bet prices Spain −2 at 1.42. Based on the market as a whole, our estimate is that Spain win by three or more roughly half the time and by exactly two about one time in five. That puts a fair price close to what is on offer, so 1.42 is reasonable rather than generous, and the value is small. We are still backing Spain −2 because the analysis points to a clear Spanish win, and the handicap pays a more meaningful price than the 1X2 market while the refund covers a two-goal margin.
Betting tip: Spain −2 (Asian handicap) @ 1.42 (10bet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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