Spain won the World Cup this summer, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final, and Luis de la Fuente's side followed up with a 3-2 win over England at Wembley on Saturday. Lamine Yamal put Spain ahead after two minutes, and after trailing at half-time Spain turned the game around through Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal. According to the English FA, that extended Spain's unbeaten run to 39 matches. Eric García left the squad with a knee problem and was replaced by Robin Le Normand, while Pedro Porro has withdrawn. Rodri, Pedri, Dani Olmo and Nico Williams are all in the squad.
Croatia have brought back Slaven Bilić as head coach, and he started with a 2-1 away win over Czechia. Luka Modrić, aged 41, scored the opener and Marco Pašalić got the winner. Croatia were close to dropping points, though, when Czechia had an equaliser ruled out for offside after a VAR check. Martin Baturina was missing for health reasons. At the World Cup Croatia went out in the round of 32 after a 2-1 defeat to Portugal, and they have conceded in five of their last six matches.
Spain have had the better of recent meetings. They won 3-0 at Euro 2024, won the 2023 Nations League final on penalties after a 0-0 draw and beat Croatia 6-0 at home in the Nations League in 2018. The pattern of play is clear. Spain will have the ball and Croatia will try to stay compact. Both sides played on Saturday, but with an ageing midfield Croatia risk tiring after the break, which is often when Spain raise the tempo and settle games.
The risks are that Spain rotate after the game at Wembley and that Croatia are used to big occasions. A deep-lying Croatia could keep Spain's scoring down for a long time, and a one-goal win is entirely possible. We still chose the handicap over a straight win, because Spain to win at 1.22 offers too little. Asian handicap −1.5 requires Spain to win by at least two goals, which is the most likely outcome when the world champions face a side that has been vulnerable at the back.
OddsCapo shows Spain −1.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with William Hill. That implies just over a 60 per cent chance of a win by two goals or more. With home advantage, the depth of Spain's squad and Croatia's defensive problems, we think that is a fair price. A straight Spain win is 1.22 and Croatia 17.00, which says a lot about how big the gap is considered to be.
Betting tip: Spain −1.5 (Asian handicap) @ 1.65 (William Hill)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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