Slovenia missed this summer's World Cup and have struggled for goals. In 2026 they have played four friendlies: a 1-0 defeat in Hungary, a 3-2 win in Montenegro, a 1-1 draw with Cyprus and a 2-1 loss to Croatia. That is five goals in four games. Head coach Boštjan Cesar must also cope without Benjamin Šeško, who has withdrawn from the squad with a recurring shin injury. Without the Manchester United striker, Andraž Šporar is expected to lead the line. At the other end, Jan Oblak gives the side a solid base.
Scotland are entering a new era. Steve Clarke stepped down after the World Cup, where Scotland went out in the group stage after beating Haiti 1-0 and losing 1-0 to Morocco and 3-0 to Brazil – one goal in three games. Belgian Sébastien Pocognoli takes charge for the first time. He is without Scott McTominay, who according to ESPN misses the camp after a minor heart procedure, and Che Adams is injured. Kieran Tierney has withdrawn and several uncapped players are in the squad. Billy Gilmour, however, is back after his World Cup injury.
Scotland are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Slovenia, with two wins and three draws. The last meeting, a 2018 World Cup qualifier in Ljubljana in 2017, ended 2-2, but both teams have changed a lot since then. This time two weakened attacks face each other. Slovenia have Oblak as their safety net at the back, and three of Scotland's last four defeats ended 1-0. The referee is Horațiu Feșnic of Romania.
The main risk with under 2.5 goals is Scotland's inexperienced back line, and a new head coach may choose a more attacking approach than Clarke. An early goal could also open the game up, just as in the 2017 meeting. We still prefer the goals market to a match result. The 1X2 prices are close – 2.75 on Slovenia, 3.30 on the draw and 2.95 on Scotland – and with two new setups it is hard to pick a winner. A low-scoring game, on the other hand, is supported by where both teams are right now.
The best price on under 2.5 goals is 1.68 with ATG, which implies a probability of just under 60 per cent. Other bookmakers are around 1.65. With Šeško and McTominay missing, a Slovenia side that has scored five goals in four games this year and a Scotland team that scored once in three World Cup matches, we think the price is fair. A 1-0, 1-1 or 0-0 looks more likely to us than three or more goals.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.68 (ATG)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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