Scotland drew 0-0 away to Slovenia in Pocognoli's first game. They were clearly the better side, especially after the break, and created chances worth an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.16 according to Sofascore. Robbie Ure hit the post, Oli McBurnie missed a one-on-one and Jan Oblak made several saves. But finishing is a problem: after beating Haiti 1-0 at the World Cup, Scotland lost to Morocco (0-1) and Brazil (0-3), and they have now gone three games in a row without scoring. Scott McTominay is out after heart surgery and is not expected back until November, and Che Adams is also missing.
Switzerland opened with a 3-0 win away to North Macedonia in Skopje. Remo Freuler scored once and Zeki Amdouni twice, and the Swiss had 23 shots to two. They reached the World Cup quarter-finals in the summer, losing to Argentina after extra time, and according to Flashscore they are unbeaten in their last eight away internationals. Murat Yakin is short in midfield, though: captain Granit Xhaka misses the whole international window, and Denis Zakaria, Ruben Vargas and Silvan Widmer are also out.
The sides last met at Euro 2024 in Cologne, where it finished 1-1 after goals from McTominay and Xherdan Shaqiri. According to Khelnow, the sides have met 16 times in all, with eight Scotland wins, three draws and five Swiss wins. The last meeting at Hampden, a friendly in 2006, ended 3-1 to Switzerland. The likely pattern tonight is a Swiss side with more of the ball and more options going forward, while Scotland will lean on set pieces, crosses and the pressure a home crowd can create. Scotland were the better side in Ljubljana, too, and are unlikely to sit deep at home.
The risks are clear. Scotland created a lot against Slovenia, and a team producing chances of that quality can find the net again at any moment. Hampden is a difficult place to win, and without Xhaka and Zakaria the Swiss are less controlled in midfield. We considered Switzerland draw no bet, but that price (1.40) does not pay enough. That's why we're backing a straight Swiss win in the 1X2 market.
According to our odds panel, Switzerland are priced at 1.95 with Interwetten, where the draw is 3.35 and a Scotland win 4.20. Previews we have seen had Switzerland closer to 1.85, so 1.95 looks fair for a side that won its opener comfortably and faces opponents who have not scored in three games.
Betting tip: Switzerland to win @ 1.95 (Interwetten)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Tuesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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