The teams
Scotland have collected four points from four matches since Pocognoli, the Belgian appointed in August to succeed Steve Clarke, took charge. The campaign opened with a goalless draw in Slovenia, followed by a 3-0 home defeat to Switzerland in which Jack Hendry was sent off inside the opening quarter of an hour. A 2-0 win in Skopje, through Kieron Bowie and a John McGinn penalty, was followed by a 2-1 loss at Hampden as Slovenia came from behind. Scott McTominay and Ché Adams are back in the squad, while Stephen Welsh and Luis Binks have withdrawn injured, with Ryan Porteous and David Bates called up in their place. Scott McKenna, sent off in Skopje, is not in the squad.
North Macedonia, under Goce Sedloski, prop up the group with zero points and a goal difference of 0-10. They have lost 3-0 to Switzerland both home and away, 2-0 in Slovenia and 2-0 at home to Scotland. Sedloski has rotated heavily between games, so the line-up is hard to predict, but the pattern has been consistent: long spells without the ball and very little threat going forward.
The sides have met five times before, with Scotland winning three, drawing one and losing one. The last meeting in Glasgow ended 1-1 in 2012. The referee is Michal Očenáš of Slovakia, who mostly works in the Slovak top flight and the Conference League. According to available statistics his average sits at around four and a half yellow cards per game, and his record at senior international level is a small sample. On the pitch, we expect Scotland to dominate possession, with the visitors defending deep and in numbers. That produces fouls, but heavily one-sided matches like this one rarely turn into the kind of open, end-to-end contest that drives up the card count.
Risks, odds and our bet
The obvious risk is discipline. Scotland have had two players sent off in four group games, and a red card can count for more than a yellow under some bookmakers' card rules, so check the settlement rules before you bet. North Macedonia were also booked several times in the reverse fixture, according to match reports, and if Scotland fail to score early, frustration on both sides can push the total up late on. We have still chosen the card market rather than the match result, since Scotland are short favourites and the result market offers little room. We prefer Under 5.5 to Under 4.5 because the extra card gives the game a buffer for a booking or two in stoppage time.
Under 5.5 cards is priced at 1.80 with Bet365 via OddsCapo, an implied probability of 55.6 per cent. Our own estimate lands at roughly four and a half to five cards, in line with the referee's average and the match profile, which gives Under 5.5 a probability of about 61 per cent in our model. That's why we're backing Under 5.5 cards.
Betting tip: Under 5.5 cards @ 1.80 (Bet365)
