Serbia have lost three games in a row. They did not qualify for the World Cup, finishing third in their qualifying group, and in June they suffered heavy friendly defeats against Cape Verde (0-3) and Mexico. On Thursday Živković gave them a fourth-minute lead against Greece, but Christos Tzolis equalised and Anastasios Douvikas headed in a 2-1 winner for Greece in stoppage time. Greece had 26 shots to Serbia's nine. Veljko Paunović is also without Dušan Vlahović (injured), Aleksandar Mitrović and defender Nikola Milenković, so Luka Jović is expected to lead the line, with Dušan Tadić back in the squad.
The Netherlands drew 1-1 with Germany in Amsterdam in Xavi's first game in charge. Germany led through Felix Nmecha before Cody Gakpo equalised in stoppage time, but the Dutch had 22 shots to Germany's ten, an expected-goals figure of 3.12 against 1.50 and twelve corners to one, according to Sofascore. Only Marc-André ter Stegen's nine saves kept Germany in it. Frenkie de Jong (knee) and Brian Brobbey (hamstring) are out, with Joshua Zirkzee called up as cover. At the World Cup the Netherlands topped their group before going out to Morocco on penalties in the round of 32.
The sides have never met under the name Serbia, but the Netherlands won all three meetings with Yugoslavia and Serbia and Montenegro: 2-1 at the 1998 World Cup, 6-1 at Euro 2000 and 1-0 at the 2006 World Cup. Those games belong to another era, but the current picture points the same way. Serbia are likely to sit deep and look for counter-attacks, while the Netherlands will have most of the ball and should create plenty against a defence that has conceded at least nine goals in its last three games.
The main risk is Dutch finishing. They created more than three expected goals against Germany and scored once, and without Brobbey and De Jong the attack is less settled. Serbia also have attacking quality in Živković and Tadić, and a home crowd in Belgrade can lift them. That is why we are not backing the Netherlands on the −1.5 handicap, which needs a two-goal win. On Asian handicap −1, a one-goal Dutch win returns the stake, and a win by two or more goals wins the bet.
The straight Dutch win is around 1.45, which offers little value for a team still finding its feet under a new coach. The −1 line is available at 1.73 at best, and we think that is fair given Serbia's absences, three straight defeats and how heavily they were outshot at home by Greece. That's why we're backing the Netherlands on the −1 Asian handicap.
Betting tip: Netherlands −1 (Asian handicap) @ 1.73 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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