The teams
Switzerland have been the class of the group. Murat Yakin's side have taken 13 points from five games, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one. They won 3-0 in Skopje and 3-0 at Hampden, beat Slovenia 2-1 and North Macedonia 3-0 at home, and Friday's goalless draw with Slovenia in Maribor confirmed top spot. Granit Xhaka and Breel Embolo, both absent in September and October, are back in the squad for this window. Friday's stalemate was still a reminder that this team does not always turn control into goals: across two meetings with Slovenia, Switzerland managed just two goals.
Scotland have had an uneven start under Sébastien Pocognoli. The campaign has brought a 0-0 draw away to Slovenia, a 2-1 home loss to the same opponents and a 3-0 home defeat to Switzerland, played with ten men after Jack Hendry was sent off in the 11th minute. On the other side of the ledger are two wins over North Macedonia, the latest 2-1 at Hampden on Friday. That leaves Scotland on seven points, one behind Slovenia. To finish second and reach the promotion play-offs, they need to win in St. Gallen and for Slovenia to drop points in North Macedonia the same evening, since Slovenia hold the head-to-head advantage. John McGinn scored both goals on Friday, and Scott McTominay, Kieran Tierney and Che Adams are all back in the squad.
The recent head-to-head favours the Swiss, but it needs context. The 3-0 at Hampden in September was shaped by the early red card, and Scotland played almost the entire match a man down. At Euro 2024 in Cologne, the sides drew 1-1. We expect Switzerland to have the ball and the higher quality, against a Scotland side that has to take some risks. But with the hosts playing for little more than a strong finish to the year in front of their own fans, we expect a tighter contest than in September.
Risks, odds and our bet
The obvious risk is that Switzerland's quality simply tells. They have conceded once in five games, and if Scotland chase the game late on, space will open up for a two-goal home win. Scotland have also had two players sent off in this campaign, and a repeat would change the match completely. Then there is the scenario where news from Skopje shows Slovenia comfortably ahead, which would take the edge off Scotland's motivation. That is why we are not backing the visitors to win outright, and why we give ourselves an extra goal of cover rather than taking Scotland +1. With +1.5, the bet wins on a draw, an away win and a one-goal Swiss win alike. Only a Swiss win by two or more beats us.
At OddsCapo, Scotland +1.5 is priced at 1.50 with Ladbrokes, which corresponds to an implied probability of 66.7 percent. We rate Switzerland's chances of winning by two goals or more at roughly one in four, given how little they have left to play for and how hard they have found it to pull clear of organised opponents. That puts our own estimate for the bet at around 74 percent, clearly above what the price implies. That's why we're backing Scotland +1.5 on the Asian handicap.
Betting tip: Scotland +1.5 @ 1.50 (Ladbrokes)
