Since their World Cup quarter-final exit against Argentina in July, Switzerland have been impressive. They opened the group with a 3-0 win in Skopje, where Remo Freuler scored before Zeki Amdouni added two more, and then won 3-0 at Hampden Park against a Scotland side down to ten men from early in the game. Saturday's 2-1 win over Slovenia in Lucerne was tougher, as they fell behind after two minutes before an own goal and a Dan Ndoye strike turned it round. Captain Granit Xhaka is not part of this squad, and Breel Embolo is also absent, as are, according to the latest reports, Denis Zakaria and Rubén Vargas through injury. Amdouni, with three goals in this campaign, has stepped up in attack. With a five-point lead at the top, reports suggest Yakin is likely to make three or four changes.
North Macedonia's problems are in attack. They have lost 3-0 at home to Switzerland, 2-0 away to Slovenia and 2-0 at home to Scotland, and according to several reports they have not scored in any of their seven matches in 2026. Midfielder Jani Atanasov is suspended after his booking against Scotland, Ezgjan Alioski picked up a calf injury in the first game against Switzerland, Boban Nikolov has left the squad and Darko Čurlinov is unavailable for administrative reasons. Goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski, with eight saves in Skopje, has been the bright spot, while Eljif Elmas, captain Enis Bardhi and Bojan Miovski carry the attacking load.
There is only one previous meeting between the nations, and it came just ten days ago. Switzerland won 3-0 in Skopje, with more than 20 shots against two from the hosts. The pattern is likely to be similar in Lucerne, with Switzerland dominating the ball against a deep, compact North Macedonia side. The question is how many goals that dominance produces. Switzerland have scored three, three and two goals in this group, which is a strong record but not a sign of a side that routinely runs up big wins. North Macedonia's two other defeats both came by two goals.
The main risk is clear: if Switzerland repeat the 3-0 from the first meeting, or score early and keep going, this bet loses. Here is how the handicap works. North Macedonia +2 wins if Switzerland win by one goal, or if the match ends in a draw or a North Macedonia win. If Switzerland win by exactly two goals, the stake is returned. If Switzerland win by three goals or more, the bet loses. A straight Switzerland win is priced too short to offer anything, and the over-goals lines assume a scoring rate that Switzerland have not quite reached in this group. North Macedonia +1.5 at 3.70 is a riskier variant that already loses at 2-0. The +2 line gives us protection on the most common winning margins.
The best price on North Macedonia +2 in the OddsCapo panel is 2.85 at Coolbet. Leaving the push aside, that implies a chance of about 35 percent that Switzerland win by fewer than three goals rather than by three or more. The market is pricing Switzerland as if they will score around three goals, but given their output in this group, the absences in their squad and the expected rotation, we think that figure is set slightly too high. We rate the chance of the bet winning, compared with it losing, at around 40 percent, which gives the price value. That's why we're backing North Macedonia +2 in Lucerne.
Betting tip: North Macedonia +2 @ 2.85 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Tuesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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