Sassuolo collected seven points from their first four league games, but have taken just one from the last five: a 2-1 defeat at Monza, a 1-1 draw with Milan, a 4-2 loss at Frosinone, a 2-0 defeat at Como and last Tuesday's 6-2 home thrashing by Lazio. They conceded 15 goals in those five matches, and overall the side has scored 14 and conceded 22 in nine games, an average of 4.0 goals per match. Kristian Thorstvedt is suspended, while Ismael Koné, Fedde Leysen and Daniel Boloca are injured. Jay Idzes is expected to return in central defence, and Nemanja Matić should be back in midfield.
Fiorentina have won just once in the league, 4-2 away to Venezia in September, and their record reads one win, two draws and six defeats with a goal difference of 11-21. Thursday's 2-2 draw with Atalanta, with goals from Jack Njie and João Mário, ended a run of three straight defeats against Genoa, Como and Inter. Fiorentina have conceded in all nine league games, and eight of them produced at least three goals; the exception was the 1-1 against Napoli. Marin Pongračić and Fabiano Parisi are injured, while Luca Ranieri and Arthur Atta are doubtful, which leaves the defence short of options again. The visitors also have only four days' rest after Thursday's game, while Sassuolo have had almost a week.
Last season's meetings went two very different ways: Sassuolo won 3-1 at the Mapei Stadium in December, while the return game in Florence in April finished 0-0. This season's numbers point towards the first scenario. All four of Fiorentina's away games have featured at least three goals (0-4 at Roma, 4-2 at Venezia, 2-1 at Genoa and 2-1 at Inter), and Sassuolo are conceding 2.4 goals per game. Sassuolo need a reaction in front of their own supporters, and neither defence has given much reason for confidence.
There are clear risks. Two struggling teams might settle for caution, as they did in the goalless draw last spring. Sassuolo have scored only six goals in their last five games, and Fiorentina's short recovery could take the pace out of the match. An early red card or a cagey first hour would also hurt the bet. We considered Over 3.5 goals, but four goals came in only four of Fiorentina's nine league games and two of Sassuolo's last five. Over 2.5 goals keeps the trend in our favour without needing a goal fest.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.58 with Coolbet at OddsCapo, which implies a probability of 63.3 per cent. Given both teams' scoring patterns this season, the injuries in both back lines and the lack of clean sheets, we put the chance at around 67 per cent. The edge is modest rather than large, but we think the price is slightly generous. That's why we're backing goals in Reggio Emilia.
Betting tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.58 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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