Salzburg have made a strong start under Danny Röhl, who took over from Daniel Beichler in the summer. According to the latest reports they have won 11 and drawn four of their 15 competitive matches, and they have won all six home games so far. They came through Europa League qualifying against Pafos (4-3 on aggregate) and Mjällby (4-0 on aggregate) before opening the league phase with a 1-0 win away at Levski Sofia, where Haris Tabakovic scored the winner. In the Austrian Bundesliga they have scored 18 and conceded only four in eight rounds, including 4-1 against Austria Wien and 5-1 against Rapid Wien. Their last game was a 0-0 draw away at Grazer AK. Tabakovic and Karim Konate have four goals each. Enrique Aguilar, Justin Omoregie and Nikolas Veratschnig are out, while goalkeeper Christian Zawieschitzky and defenders Tim Drexler and Leandro Morgalla are listed as doubts.
Milan are unbeaten in Serie A after six rounds, with three wins and three draws, but the overall picture is less convincing. They have won just one of their last five matches in all competitions, and their Europa League campaign started with a 0-2 home defeat to Benfica. At the weekend they drew 1-1 at Sassuolo: Adrien Rabiot scored after 63 minutes, but Cas Odenthal equalised from a corner five minutes later. Milan have also drawn three away league games in a row. Matteo Gabbia picked up a muscle injury in Reggio Emilia and is expected to be out for several months, while Alexis Saelemaekers is out after ankle surgery. Luka Modric still sets the tempo in midfield, and Rabiot and Diego Moreira are the joint top scorers with three goals each.
Milan are unbeaten in four previous meetings with Salzburg. The most recent two came in the 2022-23 Champions League group stage, when Noah Okafor's goal for Salzburg was cancelled out by Saelemaekers in a 1-1 draw in Austria before Milan won 4-0 at San Siro. Both squads have changed a lot since then. The match should follow a familiar pattern for Salzburg, who press high and like to have the ball. Over their last ten games they have averaged around 62 per cent possession and 7.5 corners, while their opponents have managed fewer than three shots on target per game. Milan are more patient and rely on the individual quality of Modric, Rabiot and Christian Pulisic to decide tight games.
The main risk is obvious: Milan have more quality in the squad, and after losing at home to Benfica they need points. If Salzburg's doubts in defence and in goal do not recover, Milan's attacking players could make the difference. Salzburg's run has also come mostly against weaker opposition in Austria. That is why we are not backing a straight home win. Instead we take Salzburg +0.5 on the Asian handicap, which wins if Salzburg win or draw. It means a draw, a realistic result given Milan's recent run of stalemates, is also a winner for us.
At OddsCapo, Salzburg +0.5 is priced at 1.95 with Pinnacle. We rate Salzburg's chance of avoiding defeat at around 58 per cent, compared with the implied probability of 51 per cent. Given Salzburg's home record, Milan's inconsistent form and the absences in Milan's defence, we think the bookmakers are giving the Italian name a little too much credit. We see value in the bet from odds of 1.80 and above.
Betting tip: Salzburg +0.5 (Asian handicap) @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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