Romania's campaign has fallen apart quickly. A 1-2 defeat in Solna was followed by a 2-4 home loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina and then a 0-6 thrashing in Poland on Friday. That adds up to three goals scored and twelve conceded in three games. Things do not get easier at the back: centre-back Radu Drăgușin is suspended after his red card in Poland, and Virgil Ghiță misses out through accumulated yellow cards. That removes two first-choice central defenders from a defence that is already leaking goals. Dennis Man, who scored Romania's goal in the reverse fixture, and Ianis Hagi remain the main attacking threats.
Graham Potter's Sweden have seven points from a possible nine after beating Romania 2-1 and Poland 3-1 at home and drawing 1-1 away to Bosnia and Herzegovina on Friday. The squad has been hit hard, though. Alexander Isak left the camp with a muscle problem after the opening match, Emil Holm is out with a thigh injury and Carl Starfelt went off injured against Bosnia. According to reports, Isak Hien, Gustaf Lagerbielke and John Mellberg are also unavailable. Viktor Gyökeres is the man in form, having scored in three consecutive internationals, and Victor Lindelöf is the anchor of a reshuffled back line.
Sweden have won the last three meetings between the sides: 2-1 and 2-0 in the Euro 2020 qualifiers and 2-1 in Solna less than two weeks ago. Romania's last win in the fixture was a 1-0 friendly in Bucharest in 2018. On paper the match pits Sweden's direct attacking play through Gyökeres against a Romanian defence that will be patched together without its two regular centre-backs, and that has conceded at least two goals in every group game so far. Bosnia and Herzegovina meet Poland at the same time, so a Swedish win would open up a clear gap in the race for top spot and promotion to League A.
There are clear risks. Sweden's own defence is thin, this is their fourth match in eleven days, and the trip to Bucharest adds to the fatigue. Romania have a home crowd behind them and a coach fighting for his job, which can produce a strong reaction. The referee had not been appointed when we wrote this, and starting line-ups should be checked about an hour before kick-off. We considered Sweden -1 on the Asian handicap, which pays more if Sweden win by two or more. But given Sweden's absences and tired legs, a one-goal win is a very realistic outcome, so we prefer the straight win market.
ATG offers 1.81 on a Sweden win, which implies a probability of around 55 percent. Taking Romania's collapse in form, their two suspended centre-backs and Sweden's results so far into account, we rate Sweden's chances at roughly 57 percent. The margin is small, but we believe the price is fair to slightly generous. That's why we're backing Sweden to win in Bucharest.
Betting tip: Sweden to win @ 1.81 (ATG)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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