The teams
Real Sociedad under Pellegrino Matarazzo have been productive going forward over the past month. They won 5-2 at Málaga, thrashed Lillestrøm 6-0 in Norway and beat Levante 2-1 at home before the derby against Athletic Club ended in a 2-1 defeat at the weekend. In the Europa League the Basques have four points from three games. Home form has been the weak spot: the opener against Bournemouth was lost 2-1 at Anoeta. Álvaro Odriozola is injured, while Arsen Zakharyan and Luken Beitia are doubts with ankle problems. Mikel Oyarzabal and Luka Sučić still carry much of the attacking load, and the team have scored in each of their last five matches.
Lyon under Paulo Fonseca have six points after three rounds, but they have looked like two different teams depending on the venue. At home things have gone well, most recently with a 2-0 win over Angers, while their away form has been far weaker. They were beaten 3-0 by Hoffenheim in their last Europa League outing, and according to reports Lyon have scored only three goals in their last five away games. The absence list is long as well: striker Loïs Openda is injured, as are Pavel Šulc, Steeve Kango and Mahamadou Ouédraogo, while Tyler Morton is a doubt. According to reports, Nicolás Tagliafico is also unavailable.
The sides have met only twice, in Champions League qualifying in 2013. Real Sociedad won both games 2-0, so Lyon failed to score in 180 minutes. That was a different era, but today's match-up points the same way. Real Sociedad are expected to dominate the ball and create most of the chances, while a Lyon side without their main goalscorer risk relying on counter-attacks and set pieces.
Risks, odds and our bet
The biggest risk is Real Sociedad conceding. Both teams have scored in eight of the Basques' last ten matches, and the home defeat to Bournemouth shows their defence can be breached. Both clubs have league fixtures at the weekend, so rotation could make the game more open than expected, and an early home goal could force Lyon to take more risks going forward. We have chosen the both-teams-to-score market rather than a straight home win because we have more faith in Lyon struggling to score than in Real Sociedad winning comfortably. The bet also lands on a 0-0 draw or a Lyon win without conceding.
At OddsCapo, both teams to score – No is priced at 2.45 via Pinnacle, which equates to an implied probability of 40.8 percent. We put the chance at around 44-45 percent, mainly because of Lyon's poor output away from home and Openda's absence. The margin is not large and the evidence does not all point one way, but the price sits slightly above what we consider fair. That's why we're backing both teams to score: No.
Betting tip: Both teams to score: No @ 2.45 (Pinnacle)
