Betis arrive in excellent shape. Pellegrini's side have 19 points from eight league games (six wins, one draw, one defeat) with a 14-9 goal difference, and last weekend they beat Osasuna 5-2 at La Cartuja, with Isco scoring twice and Abde Ezzalzouli and Diego Llorente also on target. On Wednesday they followed that up by coming from 2-1 down to beat Porto 3-2 in the Champions League, Cucho Hernández equalising before Isco converted the winning penalty. At home in the league they have four wins from four. Junior Firpo is out with a muscle injury, while Aitor Ruibal is back in training after his knee problem.
Barcelona's numbers are remarkable. Hansi Flick's side have scored 34 goals and conceded seven in eight league games, and most wins have been comfortable, including 3-1 at Sevilla, where Raphinha scored a hat-trick, and 3-0 at home to Getafe last weekend, when Anthony Gordon scored his first goal for the club and Gabriel Jesus also struck. They then won 4-1 away to Galatasaray on Tuesday. Raphinha, who has 12 league goals already, missed the last two matches with a thigh problem but has returned to training along with Frenkie de Jong. Andreas Christensen and Roony Bardghji, who is reported to have torn a cruciate ligament, are both out.
History favours the visitors. Barcelona are unbeaten in their last ten meetings with Betis, and won the last two 3-1 at Camp Nou in May and 5-3 at La Cartuja last December. The tactical picture is clear: Barcelona will dominate the ball, while Betis look to hurt them in transition through Abde, Isco and Cucho Hernández. That is precisely the kind of game in which Betis can score, which matters for a handicap bet. Both sides have conceded in most of their recent matches, and a single Betis goal changes the maths considerably.
The obvious risk is that Barcelona simply do what they have done all season. When they hit their stride, they win by three or four goals, and the 5-3 here last season shows how quickly Betis can be opened up. A fit-again Raphinha would only increase that threat. Even so, we prefer Betis +1.5 on the Asian handicap over a straight Barcelona win or a Barcelona -1.5 line. The bet wins if Betis win, draw or lose by a single goal. Betis are unbeaten at home this season, they have a strong attack of their own, and Barcelona come into the game after a Tuesday trip to Istanbul. We don't see much value in the outright prices for this fixture.
Betis +1.5 is priced at 1.91 with Sky Bet at OddsCapo, which implies a probability of around 52 per cent. Our assessment is 57 per cent, so the price is roughly fair to slightly generous rather than a big edge. We consider it the most reasonable way into a match where Barcelona are rightly favourites, but where Betis's home form makes a heavy defeat far from a given.
Betting tip: Real Betis +1.5 (Asian handicap) @ 1.91 (Sky Bet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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