Leipzig's season has been a story of two very different teams. Domestically they have scored freely, and they head into this game on a three-match winning run: 4-0 against Elversberg, 2-1 against Rot-Weiss Essen in the cup and 2-0 against Schalke on Saturday. Against the elite, however, the defence has been exposed: Como won 4-1 on matchday one, Bayern Munich scored six in the Bundesliga and Real Madrid won 4-1 in the last Champions League round. The only European win so far was a disciplined 1-0 against PSV. Antonio Nusa is the main outlet on the flank, and according to reports Marc Guiu and Assan Ouedraogo are still unavailable.
Manchester City started the new era under Maresca strongly, beating Porto and then AEK Athens 5-1 in the Champions League, either side of a defeat by Paris Saint-Germain. The last few weeks have been far less convincing. That 4-2 home loss to PSG was a warning sign, and since the AEK win City have suffered league losses to Aston Villa (2-1) and Brighton (1-0), with a 2-2 cup draw against Brighton, won on penalties, in between. That is one win in the last four matches. Antoine Semenyo is out with a knee injury that Maresca said could keep him sidelined for up to eight weeks, but Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku, Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden still give City more attacking quality than almost anyone in the competition.
The six previous meetings, all in the Champions League since 2021, have produced four City wins, one Leipzig win and one draw. The headline scores are lopsided, a 6-3 win in Manchester in 2021 and the 7-0 rout in the 2023 last 16, but the games in Leipzig tell a different story: the hosts won 2-1 in December 2021, drew 1-1 in February 2023 and lost 3-1 later that year. The likely pattern is City dominating the ball while Leipzig look to break quickly through Nusa and the wide areas. City's recent defensive wobbles suggest Leipzig will get chances.
The obvious risk is that Leipzig's defence collapses again, as it did against Como, Bayern and Real Madrid, all of which ended in defeats by three goals or more. If City find their rhythm early and Haaland is sharp, this can turn into a heavy away win. That is exactly why we are not backing Leipzig to win outright or on a level handicap. With RB Leipzig +1 on the Asian handicap the bet wins if Leipzig win or draw, and our stake is returned if City win by exactly one goal. We only lose if City win by two or more, which keeps us in the game in the kind of tight, nervy contest City's recent form points to.
RB Leipzig +1 is priced at 2.04 at Coolbet via OddsCapo, which corresponds to an implied probability of 49.0 per cent once a push is set aside. The market still prices City close to their peak level, while two league defeats in a row, a cup draw against Brighton and Leipzig's recent scoring form point to a closer game. Our own estimate puts Leipzig's chances on this line at around 53 per cent, excluding the push, which gives the price a modest but real edge. That's why we're backing RB Leipzig +1.
Betting tip: RB Leipzig +1 @ 2.04 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Wednesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
18+ | Gamble responsibly | Stodlinjen.se
Photo: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig by Markus Unger, CC BY 2.5, via Wikimedia Commons.
