PSG arrive on a strong run: a 3-1 win at Strasbourg in the league and then a 4-2 home win over Barcelona in the Champions League last Tuesday. That night came at a high price, though. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia tore the ACL in his right knee and needs surgery, while Ousmane Dembélé and Marquinhos both suffered thigh injuries that are expected to keep them out for several weeks. Nuno Mendes is also unavailable with a muscle problem. Luis Enrique is therefore without two of his most dangerous forwards and his captain, and the expected attack around Désiré Doué, Maghnes Akliouche and Ferran Torres is still good, but less devastating than the one that has been tearing teams apart.
Lyon have their own problems. Paulo Fonseca's side beat Nice 2-1 in their last league game, but Keito Nakamura was sent off and is suspended. They then lost 3-0 at Hoffenheim in the Europa League on Thursday, which leaves them with three fewer days of rest than PSG. The absence list is long: Pavel Šulc (meniscus), Loïs Openda (leg), Nicolás Tagliafico, Steeve Kango (concussion) and Mohamed Ouédraogo (cruciate ligament) are all missing according to the latest reports. Even so, Lyon have earned their place at the top after a strong start to the season.
PSG dominate the long-term record, but the recent meetings have been tight. Last season PSG won 3-2 in Lyon thanks to a stoppage-time goal from João Neves, and according to reports Lyon won the most recent meeting 2-1 in April. We expect PSG to control the ball and the territory, while Lyon look for transitions through Ernest Nuamah and Corentin Tolisso. Jérôme Brisard is the referee.
The main risk is obvious: PSG at home are capable of blowing anyone away, and a tired Lyon side that conceded three in Germany could open up if they fall behind early. A late PSG goal against a side chasing the game could also turn a one-goal margin into two. That is why we are not backing Lyon to win or draw. Instead we choose Asian handicap Lyon +1.5, which wins if Lyon avoid defeat or lose by a single goal. Given PSG's missing attackers and Lyon's form this season, we think a narrow game is more likely than a rout, and the handicap gives us room for a PSG win.
OddsCapo has Lyon +1.5 at 2.00 with Pinnacle, which equals an implied probability of 50.0 percent. We put the chance of Lyon staying within one goal at around 56 percent. PSG are rightly favourites, but the price assumes they are an even bet to win by two or more, and with Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos and Mendes all out, we think that is slightly too generous to the home side.
Betting tip: Lyon +1.5 (Asian handicap) @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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