The teams
Portugal have a perfect record in the group: four wins from four, 9-4 on goals, with a 1-0 win over Wales, two 2-1 wins over Norway and the 4-2 win in Copenhagen. Jorge Jesus, appointed after the World Cup in the summer, has got his side playing on the front foot, but the defence has not been watertight: Portugal have conceded in three of their four group matches. Nuno Mendes is out injured, Francisco Conceição is suspended after his red card against Norway, and Gonçalo Inácio has not been selected. Cristiano Ronaldo has retired from international football. There is still plenty of firepower with Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, João Félix, Gonçalo Ramos and Rafael Leão available.
Denmark sit second on six points after two wins and two defeats, with a goal difference of 7-7. Brian Riemer's side have scored in every group game, but they have also conceded three or more twice, losing 3-2 in Norway and 4-2 at home to Portugal. Andreas Christensen and Patrick Dorgu are both injured, which weakens the back line further. Further forward the picture is brighter: Rasmus Højlund scored against Portugal in October and converted the winning penalty in Cardiff, and Denmark have scored at least twice in three of their four group games.
The recent head-to-head record points the same way. Since March 2025 the teams have met three times: Denmark won 1-0 at home in the quarter-final, Portugal won the return 5-2 after extra time, and Portugal won 4-2 in Copenhagen in October. Both sides scored in the last two meetings. Portugal will have most of the ball, but Denmark have shown they can hurt them in transition and through Højlund's runs in behind. With Mendes missing on the left, Portugal's back line also looks less settled than usual.
Risks, odds and our bet
The main risk is that Portugal control the game so completely that Denmark rarely reach the box. That is what happened against Wales, Portugal's only clean sheet in the group, and Denmark managed just one goal, from a penalty, in Cardiff. An early Portuguese lead could also make the visitors more cautious. We have still chosen both teams to score rather than a straight Portugal win, because the home win is priced short and Denmark's need for points should keep them playing forward. This market also does not depend on who wins the game.
At OddsCapo, Both teams to score: Yes is priced at 1.70 with ATG, an implied probability of 58.8 per cent. We put the chance at around 62 per cent, based on Portugal's goal threat, the fact that they have conceded in three of four group matches, Denmark scoring in every group game and the pattern of the last two meetings. It is not a big edge, but the price is in line with our assessment. That's why we're backing both teams to score in Braga.
Betting tip: Both teams to score: Yes @ 1.70 (ATG)
