Philadelphia are 2-1, but the record flatters them. They edged Washington 24-22 at home and Tennessee 24-20 on the road, then were outplayed 27-7 in Chicago on Monday night. Jalen Hurts went 16 of 25 for 153 yards and an interception in that game, and the offense stalled after halftime. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Eagles have gone three-and-out on eight of their eleven third-quarter drives this season. The injury list is long: wide receiver DeVonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert and linebacker Zack Baun are all ruled out, which leaves Hurts with fewer reliable targets than usual.
The Rams arrive at 1-2 after a demanding start. They lost 27-7 to San Francisco in Australia in week 1, beat the Giants 28-6, and then let a 16-0 halftime lead slip in a 30-26 defeat in Denver last Sunday night. Matthew Stafford is healthy and Puka Nacua is expected back after missing two games, which gives the offense a major boost. Defensively, though, Los Angeles are weakened. Pass rusher Myles Garrett is on injured reserve after knee surgery, and cornerback Jaylen Watson and tight end Terrance Ferguson are also out.
Recent history favours Philadelphia. The Eagles won all three meetings over the last two seasons, including a playoff game, and last September they beat the Rams 33-26 in this stadium after blocking a field goal on the final play. On paper, the Rams have the stronger offense, but their pass rush is far less threatening without Garrett. That should give Hurts more time than he had in Chicago. The Rams have also been on the road in Australia, Denver and now Philadelphia, a heavy travel schedule for the opening month.
There are clear risks with backing the home side. Under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles are 0-5 as home underdogs of three points or more, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia. They are also on a short week after Monday's game, their run defense ranked 25th in the league after three weeks according to Fox Sports, and the passing game looks thin without Smith and Goedert. That is why we prefer the spread to the moneyline. With +3 we win if the Eagles win or lose by one or two points, and if the Rams win by exactly three, a common margin in the NFL, the stake is returned.
Pinnacle offers Philadelphia +3 at 2.17, which implies a probability of around 46 percent. The same bookmaker has the Eagles at 2.66 on the moneyline and +3.5 at 1.96. We rate the Rams as slightly better and roughly 60 percent to win, but the game should be close, and the push on three gives extra protection. At 2.17, we think the price on +3 is generous. That's why we're backing Philadelphia Eagles +3.
Betting tip: Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ 2.17 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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