Forest arrive in poor shape. Oliver Glasner's side have five points from six league games and sit just two points above the relegation zone. They lost 1-0 at home to Coventry and were beaten 3-1 at Crystal Palace last time out, an unhappy return to Selhurst Park for Glasner. The bigger problem is at home: Forest have taken one point from three league games at the City Ground and, according to pre-match statistics, have not scored in any of them. Igor Jesus and Nicolo Savona are ruled out, Nikola Milenkovic is a doubt, and Morgan Gibbs-White is reported not to have trained all week after the Palace defeat. Without Gibbs-White, who scored 15 league goals last season, Forest lose their most reliable source of chances.
Arsenal have been the opposite. Five wins from six league games have them second, three points behind Manchester City. The only defeat was a heavy one, 3-0 at Brighton, but they recovered with a 3-0 win over Lille in the Champions League and a comeback 2-1 win against Leeds. They have scored ten and conceded five in the league and kept three clean sheets. Bukayo Saka leads their scoring with three league goals. William Saliba is still out, Piero Hincapie is unlikely to feature and Martin Zubimendi is being assessed, so the back line is not at full strength. Even so, Arsenal have taken six points from three away games.
History supports a low-scoring picture for the home side. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six league meetings with Forest, and Forest have failed to score in each of the last four. The two most recent league games at the City Ground both finished 0-0, and Forest's last win in the fixture was a 1-0 home victory in May 2023. The likely pattern is Arsenal controlling the ball against a deep Forest block, with the hosts relying on counter-attacks and set pieces. Michael Oliver referees.
The main risk is obvious: Forest need only one goal to sink this bet. Arsenal's defence is weakened without Saliba and Hincapie, and Forest did score in their league win at Aston Villa and in the defeat at Palace, so they are capable of finding the net away from home. A set piece or an Arsenal error is enough. We considered the cards market, given Oliver and the two clubs' disciplinary records, but the numbers there look fairly priced. Under 2.5 goals is also close, but it can be lost if Arsenal score three. Both teams to score - No covers both a narrow Arsenal win and a goalless draw, which are the two most likely scripts in our view.
OddsCapo has both teams to score - No at 2.00 with Pinnacle. That implies a probability of 50.0 per cent. Given Forest's goal drought at home, their record against Arsenal and the doubts over Gibbs-White, we put the chance of at least one side failing to score at around 55 per cent. It is a modest edge rather than a big one, but we think the price slightly underestimates how hard Forest find it to create against good sides at the moment.
Betting tip: Both teams to score - No @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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