Norway made history at the World Cup this summer. Ståle Solbakken's side reached the quarter-finals, beating Brazil along the way, before losing to England after extra time. They are also playing in the Nations League's top division for the first time, having won promotion from League B last season. The squad is largely intact from the World Cup. Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard are both included, and the only major absentee is the injured Alexander Sørloth. Norway have also been strong at home, with seven straight wins in Oslo according to the latest reports.
Denmark are in a very different place. They missed the World Cup after losing to Czechia on penalties, and since then have played only two friendlies in June, a 0–0 draw with DR Congo and a 2–1 win over Ukraine. Brian Riemer remains in charge but has several absences. Andreas Christensen and Alexander Bah are both missing, weakening the centre of defence and the right flank.
The history clearly favours Denmark. Of 86 meetings, Denmark have won 52 and Norway 22. But those numbers reflect a different era, and today's Norway have attacking quality few European sides can match. With Haaland up front and Ødegaard, Berge and Nusa behind him, they have several ways to decide a game.
There are still risks. Norway's defending is far from perfect: they conceded in every World Cup match and have kept only one clean sheet in their last 13 internationals. Denmark have enough pace out wide and quality at set pieces to punish that. That's why we're backing a straight Norway win rather than a handicap line.
The market has Norway between 1.78 and 1.85 at most bookmakers. Home advantage, their World Cup form and Denmark's injury situation make 1.85 a fair price in our view.
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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