The teams
Norway opened the campaign with a 3-2 home win over Denmark, but have since lost three in a row, every one of them 2-1: at home to Portugal, a result that ended a 14-match unbeaten run at Ullevaal, away to Wales after Torbjørn Heggem was sent off just after half-time, and away to Portugal. With Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb, the attack is still dangerous. The problem is at the other end. Norway have not kept a clean sheet since the 0-0 draw with Switzerland in March and have now conceded in twelve straight internationals. Heggem is available again after his ban and Julian Ryerson is back, while Alexander Sørloth is returning from injury but is not ready for 90 minutes. According to reports, Fredrik Aursnes and Jørgen Strand Larsen are both missing through injury.
Wales arrive with one win from four group games and just two goals, both of them against Norway. They lost 1-0 in Portugal, 2-0 in Denmark and 1-0 at home to Denmark last time out, when Rasmus Højlund's penalty settled it. The attacking output is thin, but Craig Bellamy's side are hard to pull apart: five goals conceded in four matches against Portugal, Denmark and Norway. Ben Cabango is suspended, as according to reports is Sorba Thomas, and Jordan James is injured – a blow to the back line and midfield. On the plus side, Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon and Karl Darlow return, although Rodon is coming back from a hamstring problem.
In October Wales came from behind in Cardiff: Bobb scored early, Daniel James equalised before the break and Neco Williams curled in the winning free-kick moments after Heggem's red card. On Saturday we expect Norway to have most of the ball and Wales to stay compact, looking for transitions and set pieces. A draw would keep Wales ahead on head-to-head, so they have every reason to keep the game tight for as long as possible. Worth noting: all four of Norway's Nations League matches this autumn have been decided by a single goal.
Risks, odds and our bet
The obvious risk is Haaland. Norway have more quality, are at home and need the win, and an early goal could force Wales to open up – that could leave space in behind, and the Welsh defence is missing a regular. Even so, we see little value on the Norway side: the price on a home win is short, and the handicap lines ask Norway to win comfortably, something they have not done in the Nations League this season. Instead we take Wales +1.5 on the Asian handicap, which wins if Wales win, draw or lose by a single goal. Two of their three defeats in this group came by exactly one goal.
At OddsCapo, Wales +1.5 is priced at 2.28 with Coolbet, an implied probability of 43.9 per cent. We put the chance of Norway failing to win by two or more at around 50 per cent, which makes a fair price of about 2.00. Norway's leaky defence and the run of one-goal margins in this group both point that way. That's why we're backing Wales +1.5.
Betting tip: Wales +1.5 @ 2.28 (Coolbet)
