The teams
North Macedonia have had a campaign to forget. Goce Sedloski's side have lost all five group games, scoring once and conceding twelve. Switzerland beat them 3-0 both in Skopje and away, Slovenia won 2-0 in Ljubljana and Scotland took the points in Skopje (0-2) and at Hampden (2-1). The lone goal came on Friday, when Elmin Rastoder briefly equalised in Glasgow before John McGinn's penalty settled it. Four of the five matches ended with North Macedonia failing to score, and the attack has rarely looked like troubling a well-organised defence.
Slovenia have been the group's most solid defensive unit after Switzerland. Boštjan Cesar's team have conceded only three goals in five matches and kept three clean sheets: 0-0 at home to Scotland, 2-0 against North Macedonia and 0-0 against Switzerland in Maribor on Friday. With Jan Oblak in goal and a compact, patient approach, they rarely open up. The attack is more modest, with five goals in total, but Aljoša Matko and Danijel Šturm combined to win 2-1 at Hampden in October. On eight points, Slovenia go into the last round one point ahead of Scotland, who visit Switzerland in St. Gallen at the same time. A win in Skopje secures second place; a draw is enough unless Scotland win.
The first meeting this autumn followed the expected script. Slovenia were patient, Sandi Lovrić opened the scoring after 55 minutes and Matko added a second, while a Žan Vipotnik goal was ruled out for offside. North Macedonia created little. Older meetings were tighter: the sides drew 1-1 in 2019 and 2021, and North Macedonia won 2-1 in Skopje in Euro qualifying, but those results come from a different era for both squads.
Risks, odds and our bet
The main risk is that North Macedonia finally relax with nothing left to play for. They did score in Glasgow on Friday, they will have a home crowd behind them, and all three of the older meetings with Slovenia saw both teams score. If Slovenia need a goal late, they may also push more players forward and leave space on the counter. Even so, we prefer both teams to score – no over the match result. A Slovenia win is the most likely outcome, but that price leaves no margin for a side that scores rarely. Both teams scored in only one of North Macedonia's five group games, and in two of Slovenia's.
At OddsCapo, the price is 1.66 with Pinnacle, which equals an implied probability of 60.2 percent. We put the chance that at least one side fails to score at around 64 percent, based on North Macedonia's goal drought and Slovenia's three clean sheets in five. That is a modest but real edge, and we would not take it much lower. That's why we're backing both teams to score – no in Skopje.
Betting tip: Both teams to score - No @ 1.66 (Pinnacle)
