Goce Sedloski's North Macedonia have been short of attacking threat for months. They opened the group with a 0-3 home defeat by Switzerland and then lost 0-2 in Slovenia. Those results stretched their run without a goal to six matches, following a 0-4 loss to Denmark, goalless draws with the Republic of Ireland and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and a 0-4 defeat by Turkey. They are also ten games without a win, and their last victory was a 5-0 win over Liechtenstein in September 2025. Ezgjan Alioski (calf) and Boban Nikolov are out injured. That puts even more weight on captain Enis Bardhi and striker Bojan Miovski to create something.
Scotland have also started slowly under Sébastien Pocognoli, who was appointed in August after Steve Clarke resigned following the World Cup. The Belgian's first game was a 0-0 draw in Slovenia. Scotland created plenty of chances there, with 17 shots and 2.2 expected goals according to Opta data. The home debut against Switzerland ended 0-3 after Jack Hendry was sent off inside the opening ten minutes. Scotland have now gone four games without scoring, a run that includes World Cup defeats by Morocco (0-1) and Brazil (0-3). Scott McTominay is still recovering from a minor heart procedure. Che Adams, Lawrence Shankland and Kieran Tierney are also missing, and Hendry is suspended, with Stephen Welsh expected to come in. Andy Robertson is set to win his 100th cap.
The two nations have met four times, all in World Cup qualifiers between 2008 and 2013. North Macedonia won 1-0 at home in 2008, and Scotland won 2-0 in 2009, drew 1-1 in 2012 and won 2-1 in Skopje in 2013. Those games come from a different era and say little about Saturday's match, although three of the four finished with fewer than three goals. The current numbers matter more. The two teams have scored a combined one goal in their last ten matches, and none of those ten games ended with both teams on the scoresheet. We expect Scotland to have most of the ball against a deep-lying home side.
The main risk is a North Macedonian consolation goal. A set piece or a mistake could be enough, and a home crowd in Skopje can lift a team that badly needs a reaction. Scotland have also conceded three goals in two of their last three games, and their central defence is weakened without Hendry. So why not back Scotland to win? Odds of around 1.70 are short for a side that has not scored in four games. Under 2.5 goals is the natural alternative, but it loses on a 3-0, which is exactly the kind of result North Macedonia have suffered recently. Both teams to score – No covers a goalless draw, any 1-0, and Scotland wins by 2-0 or 3-0, which we see as the most likely outcomes.
Sky Bet offers 1.73 on Both teams to score – No, which implies a probability of roughly 58 per cent, while the Yes side is priced at around 2.25. Based on both teams' scoring form, we put the chance of at least one team failing to score in the low to mid-60s per cent range. That makes the price look fair, with some value. For comparison, Under 2.5 goals is priced around 1.71, but we prefer the extra margin and the wider range of winning scorelines that this market gives. No bet is without risk, and a single goal from North Macedonia changes everything.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – No @ 1.73 (Sky Bet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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