The teams
Mike Brown's Knicks have recovered from a slow start to reach 5-4 and arrive on a three-game winning streak, most recently a 109-97 win in Cleveland on Saturday, when Jalen Brunson scored 31 points and Karl-Anthony Towns 29. New York's identity this season is defence: they concede 104.2 points per game, the second-lowest figure in the league, while scoring 109.9 themselves. Only two of their nine games have finished above 219 points – both against Chicago – and their five home games have averaged 212 combined points. Josh Hart (right ankle) has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable. Final statuses may not be confirmed until shortly before tip-off.
Milwaukee are in the first season after trading Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami in the summer, and it shows. Under new head coach Taylor Jenkins the Bucks are 1-9 and have lost six straight, the latest a 117-97 home defeat to Boston on Sunday. They average 108.4 points but concede 121.6, and they have not reached 112 points in any of their last seven games. Tyler Herro, their top scorer at 21.4 points per game, is questionable with a right knee contusion, and according to reports Gary Trent Jr. is dealing with an illness. Neither team is on a back-to-back: the Bucks had Monday off, while New York have had two days of rest.
The three meetings last season produced 232, 227 and 225 points, with the Knicks winning two of them, including 127-98 in Milwaukee in February. Those numbers look tempting for the over, but they came against a Milwaukee side still built around Antetokounmpo, and the teams have not met yet this season. Today's match picture is about tempo and efficiency. According to Basketball Reference, New York play at one of the slowest paces in the league, and their defence faces a Bucks attack that takes plenty of threes but, according to reports, makes only about a third of them.
Risks, odds and our bet
The main risk is Milwaukee's own defence. A team conceding more than 120 points a game could let the Knicks pile up a big score on their own, and the Bucks' four road games have averaged 227.5 points. A lopsided game can also open up in the fourth quarter, when bench units often play looser, and any overtime counts towards the total. If Herro sits, Milwaukee lose their main scorer, but the game could also become even more one-sided. We chose the total rather than the handicap because the pace and defensive numbers point more clearly towards a low-scoring game than towards a specific winning margin.
Under 218.5 points is available at 2.05 via OddsCapo (Bethard), which corresponds to an implied probability of 48.8 per cent. The wider market has the total at around 219.5 to 220.5 points. We land a little lower: the Knicks' home games and Milwaukee's recent output point to a final score in the region of 117-101, and we put the chance of the game finishing below 218.5 at about 53 per cent. The edge is modest, but at this price we think it is worth taking. That's why we're backing under 218.5 points.
Betting tip: Under 218.5 points @ 2.05 (Bethard)
