Kellen Moore's Saints lost 31-30 in overtime in Detroit, won 24-17 in Baltimore and then fell 35-27 at home to Las Vegas, a game in which they turned the ball over four times. Quarterback Tyler Shough has been one of the league's most productive passers so far, with 917 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and New Orleans averages 27.0 points per game. The Saints concede 27.7 points per game and have allowed 200 or more passing yards and 108 or more rushing yards in every game. That defence is now short-handed: linebacker Kaden Elliss and edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings are ruled out, while linebacker Pete Werner and tight end Noah Fant are questionable. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Atlanta's season has been a story of two quarterbacks. With Michael Penix Jr. still rehabbing after the third ACL surgery of his career and Tua Tagovailoa hurt in preseason, Cooper Rush started the first two games, and Kevin Stefanski's side lost 20-13 in Pittsburgh and 34-3 at home to Carolina. Penix returned on Thursday Night Football in Green Bay and the offence looked very different. He completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards in a 35-14 win, while Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns and Drake London caught nine passes for 194 yards. The Falcons defence ranks third in the league in success rate and has held every opponent under 70 rushing yards. Linebackers Divine Deablo and Yasir Abdullah and defensive end Samson Ebukam are listed as questionable. Atlanta also arrives on eleven days' rest.
Atlanta swept the series last season, winning 24-10 and 19-17, and the last three meetings have all finished with 37 points or fewer in total. We put limited weight on that, as both quarterback situations and Atlanta's coaching staff have changed. The more relevant matchup is Atlanta's offence against a depleted Saints front seven. Elliss, Werner and Jennings have accounted for 62 per cent of New Orleans' linebacker snaps this season, which makes it hard to see the Saints containing Robinson. At the same time, Shough has kept producing touchdowns, and the game is played indoors, so weather will not slow either offence. Saints games this season have finished with 61, 41 and 62 points in total.
The main risk is Atlanta's defence. It has been one of the most efficient units in the league, and if it slows Shough down, the Falcons may lean on Robinson and control possession, which shortens the game. Division games are often tight and familiar, and three games is a small sample. Atlanta's offence has looked sharp in only one of them, with a quarterback coming back from a serious knee injury, and turnovers can cut both ways. We looked at the spread and the moneyline, but the market prices both sides close to fair. We prefer the total, where the question is not who wins but whether two offences facing contrasting defences can reach 45 points between them.
Across the wider market the total sits around 47.5 to 48.5 points, having opened at 45.5 and moved upwards during the week. With Coolbet's over 44.5 points at 1.70, we get a margin of three to four points against the consensus line. At 1.70 the implied probability is about 59 per cent, while our own estimate is slightly above 60 per cent. It is a modest edge, but one backed by the matchup. That's why we're backing over 44.5 points in New Orleans.
Betting tip: Over 44.5 points @ 1.70 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Monday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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