The Netherlands turned to Xavi after a 1-1 draw with Morocco in Monterrey ended in a shootout defeat. The Spaniard is the first foreign head coach of the Dutch national team since Ernst Happel in the late 1970s. He wants to bring back a possession game built on pressing, but he has had only a few days on the training pitch. The absentee list is long: Frenkie de Jong, Memphis Depay, Wout Weghorst, Marten de Roon and Mats Wieffer are unavailable, and Donyell Malen and Justin Kluivert have withdrawn injured, according to the latest reports. Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders and Cody Gakpo form the spine, while Brian Brobbey arrives on the back of a hat-trick against Manchester City. According to preview data, the Dutch have lost only once at home since October 2023.
Germany also changed course after going out to Paraguay on penalties following a 1-1 draw in Foxborough. Julian Nagelsmann stepped down and Klopp took over. His first big decision was unusual. He split a 44-man pool into two groups for four Nations League matches in quick succession, so Florian Wirtz is not involved in Amsterdam. Nick Woltemade and Aleksandar Pavlovic are also in the second group, while Leon Goretzka and Deniz Undav are missing. The attack instead runs through Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz, with Joshua Kimmich as the organiser. Germany have scored in 13 consecutive internationals.
Germany lead the all-time series with 18 wins to the Netherlands' 12, with 18 draws in 48 meetings. The last four meetings ended 1-1 (Amsterdam, 2022), 2-1 to Germany (2024), 2-2 (Amsterdam, 2024) and 1-0 to Germany (2024). Three of them had three goals or fewer. Both coaches want the ball and a high press, which can create openings. But a first match under a new coach tends to be about structure and shape. Both sides are also without key creators in De Jong and Wirtz.
The main risk is obvious. Xavi and Klopp are known for attacking football, Germany keep scoring, and several previews predict a 2-2 draw, which would sink this pick. One defensive mix-up in an unfamiliar system could open the game. That is why we are backing Under 3.5 goals rather than Under 2.5: the extra goal gives us room for a 2-1 or a 3-0. We avoid the 1X2 market, where the two teams are priced identically at 2.65.
Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.75 with Bethard, which implies a probability of around 57 per cent. At the same time, Over 2.5 goals is priced as low as 1.50, a sign that the market expects an open game. We think that expectation is slightly too high. Both coaches are taking charge for the first time, both sides are missing creators and recent meetings have been tight. Both teams' last competitive matches also ended 1-1. At 1.75 we see a fair price with some value.
Betting tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.75 (Bethard)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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