Napoli have collected 10 points from seven league games and were beaten 1-0 at Venezia last weekend, where Akor Adams scored the only goal and Kevin De Bruyne had a penalty saved by Stankovic. It was Venezia's first win of the season. Midweek brought some relief, a 4-3 Champions League win over Bodø/Glimt in which Scott McTominay scored twice, but Napoli conceded three times at home and needed an own goal late on. Rasmus Højlund is expected back up front, while Amir Rrahmani is reported to be running a fever. Alessandro Buongiorno and David Neres are, according to reports, still being assessed.
Roma are the opposite story. Gasperini's side have 17 points, two behind Inter and Lazio, and have not lost a league game. Their defence is the standout feature: they conceded only three goals in their first six matches, and they kept a clean sheet in the 2-0 win over Genoa last weekend. They also rotated in the Champions League on Tuesday and still beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0. Donyell Malen returns after serving a suspension for his red card at Como. Roma are without Paulo Dybala, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Koné and goalkeeper Mile Svilar, so Pierluigi Gollini, a former Napoli player, is set to start in goal.
The last meeting at the Maradona, in February, reportedly finished 2-2, with Malen scoring twice for Roma. We would not read too much into older head-to-head records, since both clubs have changed coaches and squads. The current picture is clearer. Roma are hard to break down and comfortable without the ball, as the 0-0 at Como with ten men showed. Napoli have struggled to create in the league and failed to score at Venezia. Both sides also played on Tuesday, which tends to make the game tighter.
There are obvious risks. Napoli have more individual quality than their league position suggests, and De Bruyne, McTominay and Højlund can decide a game on their own. Roma's absences, Dybala and Pellegrini in particular, take creativity out of the side, but Malen's return gives them a real threat on the counter. A single goal either way ends a draw bet. We still prefer it to backing either side outright. Napoli's form is poor and Roma have avoided defeat all season, so a stalemate between a struggling attack and the league's best defence is a realistic outcome.
At OddsCapo, the draw is priced at 3.50 with bwin, which implies a probability of 28.6 per cent. We estimate the chance of a draw at around 30 per cent. That is above the market price, given Roma's defensive record, Napoli's lack of goals in the league and a contest between two closely matched teams. The edge is small, as it usually is in this market, but we think the price is a fair way into the game.
Betting tip: Draw @ 3.50 (bwin)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Saturday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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