Michael Carrick's side have not won in nine matches in all competitions. The latest setbacks were a 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth and a 2-0 loss at Chelsea on Saturday. Carrick kept his job last week despite reports that he was close to the exit. Europe has offered no relief either: after an opening win over Sabah, United lost 2-0 to Atlético Madrid and 4-1 to Como, leaving them on three points from three games. The squad is stretched as well. Striker Benjamin Sesko is out with a shin problem, according to reports until the new year, while Patrick Dorgu, Luke Shaw and Manuel Ugarte are also sidelined.
Roma travel in far better shape. Gasperini's team have won four of their last five matches, including a 5-2 win over Udinese at the weekend, a 4-2 victory against Cagliari and a 4-0 rout of Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League. The only blemish in that run was a 3-3 draw away to Napoli. Their European campaign started with a 1-1 draw against Fenerbahçe and a 4-3 defeat to Real Madrid, so they sit on four points. Roma have problems of their own: Manu Koné is out with a muscle injury, goalkeeper Mile Svilar is still working his way back from a foot fracture and is expected to miss out, and Paulo Dybala remains a doubt with a calf issue. Donyell Malen is expected to lead the line.
The clubs have a long European history. Their most recent meetings came in the 2021 Europa League semi-final, when United won 6-2 at Old Trafford before Roma took the second leg 3-2 in Rome. That was a different era for both clubs, but it shows how open this fixture can become. Roma's 3-4-2-1 under Gasperini pushes players forward aggressively, and that is exactly the kind of pressure United's back line has struggled to cope with.
The risks are real. Old Trafford can lift a struggling team, a reaction from a squad playing for its manager is entirely possible, and United still have quality in Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo. Roma are without their first-choice goalkeeper and Koné in midfield, and they concede regularly themselves, which keeps the draw in play. Any change in United's dugout at short notice could also shift the dynamic. Within the 1X2 market we prefer the straight away win over the draw: Roma's attack gives them a genuine chance of taking all three points, and the draw price does not offer the same margin over our own assessment.
Roma to win is priced at 3.15 with Pinnacle at OddsCapo, which implies a probability of 31.7 per cent. We rate Roma's chances at around 37 percent, based on the gap in form, United's absences and the goals Roma are currently producing. The market still appears to lean on United's name and home advantage more than their recent performances justify. That's why we're backing Roma to win at Old Trafford.
Betting tip: Roma to win @ 3.15 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Tuesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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Photo: Old Trafford by Stacey MacNaught, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
