Iraola's first autumn at Liverpool has been uneven in the Premier League but convincing in Europe. The Reds opened the league phase with a 2-1 home win over Atlético Madrid and then won 6-3 at LASK last Wednesday. At the weekend they came from behind to win 2-1 at Brentford, with Víctor Muñoz and Alexander Isak scoring after the break. Isak has five goals this season and is the reference point in attack. Over their last ten competitive matches Liverpool have six wins, three draws and one defeat, but Anfield has not been a fortress domestically: draws with Nottingham Forest and Fulham and a 0-3 loss to Manchester City all came at home. Dominik Szoboszlai (hamstring) and Jeremie Frimpong are out, Hugo Ekitiké and Conor Bradley remain long-term absentees, while Ryan Gravenberch returns from suspension.
Villarreal have struggled for consistency since Pérez took over in the summer. They sit 12th in La Liga with nine points from nine matches, after a 1-0 defeat at Real Madrid and a goalless home draw with Elche on Saturday. The European picture is brighter: after a 3-2 loss in Dortmund on matchday one, they beat Napoli 3-1 last week. According to Opta figures cited in previews, they have scored 13 league goals from around 19.5 expected goals, so the attack creates more than it converts. Nicolas Pépé is sidelined after eye surgery and Tajon Buchanan is out with a hamstring problem. Pérez made wholesale changes against Elche, so his first-choice players should be fresh.
History favours the hosts. The clubs have met four times in competitive football, all in European semi-finals, and Liverpool have won three. Villarreal's only win came in the first leg of the 2016 Europa League semi-final, which Liverpool overturned 3-0 at Anfield. In the 2022 Champions League semi-final Liverpool won 2-0 at home and 3-2 in Spain. In terms of match-up, Liverpool's wide threat through Florian Wirtz and Rio Ngumoha meets a Villarreal side that likes the ball but, according to reports, has kept only one clean sheet this season. Liverpool have conceded in four of their last five games, so Villarreal should create chances of their own.
The risks are real. Without Szoboszlai, Liverpool lose energy and goals from midfield, and the home results against Forest, Fulham and City show they can drop points at Anfield. Their defence has leaked seven goals in the last three games, and a rested Villarreal attack could punish lapses. A draw is a realistic outcome if Liverpool are wasteful. We still prefer the straight win to a handicap: the gap in quality and form is clear, but Villarreal score often enough that a margin of two goals or more is far from certain. That is also why we avoid markets that depend on a Liverpool clean sheet.
Liverpool to win is priced at 1.53 at OddsCapo with Coolbet, an implied probability of roughly 65 per cent. That sits at the upper end of the range we found elsewhere, where most bookmakers offer around 1.50 to 1.56. According to several previews, Liverpool have won 15 of their last 16 home games in the Champions League group and league phase. Weighing that, their perfect start in this campaign and Villarreal's weak league form and absences, we rate the home win at around 67 per cent. The edge is modest rather than large, but the price is fair to slightly generous. That's why we're backing Liverpool to win at Anfield.
Betting tip: Liverpool to win @ 1.53 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Tuesday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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