Liverpool's first season under Iraola has been uneven. They have three wins, three draws and one defeat after seven league rounds, but have scored only nine goals and conceded eight. Anfield has not been a fortress either: just two points from three home league games, including a 3-0 defeat to Manchester City on 11 October after Ryan Gravenberch was sent off. Last weekend they came from behind to win 2-1 at Brentford, with Víctor Muñoz and Alexander Isak scoring, and on Tuesday they edged Villarreal 4-3 in the Champions League. Dominik Szoboszlai and Jeremie Frimpong are sidelined with hamstring problems, and according to reports Muñoz is a doubt with a knee issue.
Brighton have been one of the stories of the autumn. They have scored 23 league goals and conceded only five, and four of those came in a single game, the 4-3 defeat at Chelsea in August. That means five clean sheets in seven league matches. Recent results underline the trend: 3-0 against Arsenal, 2-0 at Sunderland and 5-0 against Crystal Palace last Sunday. The question mark is fatigue, as Hürzeler's side drew 0-0 away at Jablonec in the Conference League on Thursday evening, three days before this trip north.
The recent head-to-head record also leans away from goals at both ends. Liverpool won both meetings at Anfield last season without conceding, 2-0 in the league in December and 3-0 in the FA Cup in February, before Brighton won 2-1 on the south coast in March. The likely pattern on Sunday is Liverpool trying to control the ball against a well-organised Brighton block that has been very hard to break down, while Brighton's threat comes in transition and from set pieces.
There are clear risks. Liverpool have conceded in most of their recent games, including three goals at home to both Manchester City and Villarreal, and Brighton's attack is the most productive in the league. If the visitors score early, the home side will push forward and the game can open up quickly. That is why we avoid a result bet. Liverpool are fragile, Brighton face a heavy schedule, and the 1X2 market feels like a coin toss. Instead we focus on the both teams to score market, where the price for No looks too generous given Brighton's defensive record.
At OddsCapo, No in the both teams to score market is priced at 2.75 with Betfair, which corresponds to an implied probability of 36.4 per cent. The market prices this as a high-scoring encounter, mainly because of Liverpool's porous defence. But Brighton have kept a clean sheet in five of seven league games, and Liverpool have managed only nine league goals. We estimate the chance of at least one team failing to score at around 41 per cent. The edge is not huge, but we think the price is a little too high, and that's why we're backing No.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – No @ 2.75 (Betfair)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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