The teams
Croatia opened the group with a 2-1 win in Prague, where Luka Modrić and Pašalić scored, but have lost all four games since: 4-1 in Spain, a 7-0 home defeat to England in Rijeka, 2-1 to Spain in Split and 2-1 at Wembley on Thursday. Slaven Bilić started Modrić on the bench in London and brought him on in the 76th minute to keep him fresh for Sunday. Ivan Perišić, sent off against Spain, is available again, while Andrej Kramarić (reportedly a knee problem) and Marin Pongračić are missing. Against Spain and England Croatia had little of the ball, and in the four group games with full statistics they won 6, 2, 1 and 3 corners.
Czechia have lost all five group matches and arrive with a weakened squad. Captain Ladislav Krejčí is suspended after his red card against Spain on Thursday, and Hranáč, Karabec, Lingr, Ryneš and Šulc are all out injured. According to reports, defender Štěpán Chaloupek has also withdrawn through illness. Under Spanish coach Santi Denia the team has struggled to create: Czechia have won only nine corners in five group games and have had men sent off in three of their last four.
Czechia have never beaten Croatia as an independent nation. In June 2025 Croatia won 5-1 at this same stadium, and in September's 2-1 win in Prague the corner count ended 6-1. According to the statistics we have reviewed, the total number of corners in Czechia's five group games was 7, 7, 5, 9 and 14, and Croatia's four games with full data ended on 7, 8, 7 and 9. Even when one side has dominated possession, the corner count has rarely run away.
Risks, odds and our bet
The biggest risk is that the hosts dominate territory against a depleted opponent and pile up corners on their own, as they did in Prague. Czechia's need for a win could also open the game late on, and the 14 corners in Thursday's defeat to Spain show that the line can be broken. We still prefer the corner market to the result: Croatia have lost four in a row and a draw suits them, which points to a controlled home performance rather than a siege. Czechia, meanwhile, lack the attacking quality and set-piece pressure to add many corners of their own.
At OddsCapo the bet is priced at 1.63 with Paf, which equates to an implied probability of 61 per cent. Seven of the eight group matches involving these teams for which we have complete statistics finished with nine corners or fewer, and we put the chance of the under at around 66 per cent. That's why we're backing under 9.5 corners.
Betting tip: Under 9.5 corners @ 1.63 (Paf)
