Slaven Bilić's second spell in charge has started unevenly. He returned in July after Zlatko Dalić stepped down following the World Cup, where Croatia were knocked out 2-1 by Portugal in the knockout stage. The Nations League opened with a 2-1 win in Czechia, a game in which Luka Modrić became Croatia's oldest ever scorer and Marco Pašalić got the winner. Three days later came a 4-1 defeat in Seville, after which Bilić admitted his side had been bad in every way. Debutant Dion Drena Beljo headed the equaliser, but the defence could not cope once Spain raised the tempo. According to reports, centre-back Martin Erlić is out with a hamstring problem, while Josip Stanišić missed the Spain game with a virus. Modrić, now 41, played limited minutes in Seville. Joško Gvardiol and Mateo Kovačić remain key, and this is Bilić's first home game since his return.
England arrive after a World Cup in which they took bronze, losing 2-1 to Argentina in the semi-final before a wild 6-4 win over France in the third-place play-off. The Nations League began with a 3-2 home defeat to Spain at Wembley, where Harry Kane also missed a penalty. England responded with a 2-0 win in Prague against a Czechia side reduced to ten men after 22 minutes. Anthony Gordon and Kane have scored in both games. The squad, however, is badly depleted. Cole Palmer, Declan Rice, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo and Tino Livramento all withdrew before the camp, and Nico O'Reilly has also left the squad. According to reports, Jude Bellingham picked up a minor knock in Prague but remains with the group. Thomas Tuchel has said he does not intend to rotate heavily, despite four games in eleven days.
England lead the head-to-head record with seven wins, two draws and three defeats in twelve meetings. They have won three of the last five, including a 4-2 win in the World Cup group stage in June, while Croatia's most recent victory came in the 2018 World Cup semi-final. The last meeting in Rijeka, also behind closed doors in 2018, ended 0-0. The likely pattern is England taking the initiative and attacking down the flanks through Gordon and Bukayo Saka, with Croatia looking to control the rhythm through Modrić and Kovačić. The problem for the hosts is that their back line has struggled in transition, something Spain exploited ruthlessly.
The biggest risk is a draw. Croatia know how to slow a game down, and with both teams playing their third match in eight days, the tempo could drop after the break. England's midfield is without Rice and Mainoo, and their defence has looked vulnerable. We have still chosen the straight win over draw no bet or a handicap. The draw-no-bet price is squeezed so low that there is little left to gain, and a bigger handicap demands a margin that Croatia rarely concede. The match result is where we see the best balance between risk and price.
Coolbet offer 1.89 on an England win, an implied probability of almost 53 per cent. We rate England's chances at around 55 per cent: a deeper squad and better form, a Croatia side that conceded four in their last game, and a home advantage that largely disappears in an empty stadium. The edge is not large, but the price is fair for the better team on the pitch. That's why we're backing England.
Betting tip: England to win @ 1.89 (Coolbet)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Friday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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