The teams
Kristiansund are 15th with 23 points from 25 games, one point behind Aalesund in the play-off place and four clear of bottom side Start. A win tonight would lift them to 14th. Their last outing was a welcome boost: 4-2 at Sarpsborg after leading 3-0 at half-time. Before that came a 2-2 draw with KFUM, a 1-4 home loss to Aalesund and defeats against Bodø/Glimt and Rosenborg, and they have conceded at least twice in each of their last five league games. At home they have four wins, three draws and five defeats. According to the latest reports, Wilfred Igor is sidelined by a knee injury and David Tufekcic is doubtful with a groin problem.
Vålerenga are eighth with 32 points and little left to chase. Third-placed Rosenborg, in the last European place, are 14 points ahead, while the eight-point cushion to Aalesund keeps the drop at a distance. The form under Johannes Moesgaard, appointed in May, has nonetheless turned: 3-1 against Brann, 1-0 at Bodø/Glimt and 4-0 against Tromsø in their last three league games, the last two without conceding. A 3-2 cup defeat at Sarpsborg on 28 October sits in between. Away from home the record is weaker, at three wins, three draws and six defeats. According to the latest reports, Omar Bully Drammeh (Achilles) and Elbasan Rashani (knock) have both been listed as injured, and their availability is unclear.
Vålerenga won the reverse fixture 3-1 in May and also won 2-0 on this artificial pitch in April 2025. Recent meetings have swung between open games and one-sided ones: 3-3 last November, 3-2 and 3-0 in 2022, and two 0-2 results in the 2023 play-off. Both sides scored in six of the last ten. Tonight, Kristiansund's need for points should push them forward, and that leaves room for a Vålerenga attack that has scored eight goals in three league games.
Risks, odds and our bet
The obvious risk is that this is exactly the kind of game in which both teams score. All of Kristiansund's last five league games had goals at both ends, both teams scored in eight of Vålerenga's last twelve league games, and the hosts have conceded 51 times this season while Vålerenga have let in 46. We looked at the half-time market and the 1X2 as well, but neither offered a margin we trusted. Our case for this market is about price rather than a prediction of a tight game. Vålerenga have kept two clean sheets in their last three league games, four of the last ten meetings saw one side fail to score, and according to the available statistics each team has drawn a blank in a little over a quarter of its league games this season. A Vålerenga win to nil, or a Kristiansund win built on a rare clean sheet, are both realistic routes.
Both teams to score: No is priced at 3.30 with Sky Bet via OddsCapo, which implies a probability of 30.3 per cent. We put the chance at about 33 per cent. That is a narrow edge in a market that leans firmly the other way, and it depends on the price holding. That's why we're backing Both teams to score: No.
Betting tip: Both teams to score: No @ 3.30 (Sky Bet)
