Juventus have been efficient in Europe so far: a 5-0 win over NEC Nijmegen on matchday one and a late 2-1 comeback at Celta Vigo last Thursday, where Nick Woltemade and Randal Kolo Muani scored. Domestic form is patchier. After a 2-0 win over Atalanta and a 1-1 draw at Cagliari, Sunday's 0-3 home defeat to Lazio ended their unbeaten home record this season. Luciano Spalletti watched that game from the stands because of a domestic suspension and afterwards described his side as "slow in the legs and in the head". The squad is also thin: Kenan Yildiz, Khephren Thuram and Manuel Locatelli are all sidelined with long-term injuries, which takes both creativity and control out of the team and leaves much of the attacking burden on Kolo Muani.
Franck Haise's Rennes are a team with two faces. Their Ligue 1 matches have been wide open: a 0-4 defeat at Lyon, a 4-1 win over Auxerre and Sunday's 3-4 loss at Paris FC, a game that featured four penalties. According to reports, they have conceded around two goals per league match. In Europe, however, they have been far more measured, with a goalless draw away at Sturm Graz and a late 2-1 home win over OFI Crete. The biggest concern is Esteban Lepaul. The striker, Ligue 1's top scorer according to French media, injured his ankle in Paris after converting three penalties, and Haise has said he struggles to see him playing on Thursday.
The clubs have met only twice in competitive football, in the 1999 Intertoto Cup final, when Juventus won 2-0 and drew 2-2. That is a different era and tells us little about this game. More relevant is how the sides match up now. Without Yildiz and Thuram, Juventus have found it hard to create a high volume of chances in the league, and their recent domestic games have mostly been low-scoring. Rennes without Lepaul lose their main finisher, and away from home in Europe they have so far chosen a compact approach. We expect Juventus to have most of the ball against a deep block, in a match that points towards a modest number of goals.
There are clear risks. Rennes' defence has been leaky in France, and if Juventus score early the game could open up as the visitors are forced to chase it. A 2-1, the same score as in Vigo, would be enough to beat the bet, and a set piece or a penalty can change the picture quickly. Both teams also play again on Sunday, so rotation could make the game more disjointed. We chose the total goals market rather than a straight home win because Juventus' price offers little margin after their weekend collapse, while the 2.5 line best reflects our view of a tight, controlled game. Under 3.5 goals would land more often, but pays considerably less.
At OddsCapo, under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.38 with Betfair, which corresponds to an implied probability of 42.0 per cent. Given Juventus' injury list, Lepaul's likely absence and the cautious way Rennes have handled their European away games, we put the chance of two goals or fewer at around 50 per cent. That makes the price look higher than it should be, and that is why we are backing under 2.5 goals in Turin.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 (Betfair)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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