Juventus have collected three wins, two draws and one defeat from their first six league games, scoring nine and conceding five. Only one of those six matches, the 3-2 defeat at Sassuolo, produced more than two goals; the others ended 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 1-1. At home the pattern is even clearer, with a 2-0 win over Parma, a 1-1 draw with Milan and a 2-0 win over Atalanta. Last Sunday's 1-1 at Cagliari needed a late Randal Kolo Muani equaliser, and the Frenchman also headed the stoppage-time winner in Thursday's 2-1 Europa League win at Celta Vigo. That trip to Spain leaves Juventus only three days to recover. Luciano Spalletti will not be on the touchline either, after a one-match ban for his post-match clash with Cagliari coach Fabio Pisacane. Manuel Locatelli and Khéphren Thuram are long-term absentees with knee injuries, so Douglas Luiz and Sarr are expected to start in midfield.
Gennaro Gattuso's Lazio are unbeaten after six rounds, with five wins and one draw, 11 goals scored and only four conceded. They kept clean sheets in their first two matches, came from behind to win 2-1 at Udinese, won 2-0 at Venezia and beat Monza 3-1 last weekend, although Monza were down to ten men from before half-time. Gustav Isaksen and Mattia Zaccagni are expected to start on the flanks, with Tijjani Noslin preferred to Andrea Pinamonti through the middle. Nicolò Rovella and Adam Marusic are missing, and according to reports Albert Gudmundsson, who scored the winner in Udine on his debut, is also unavailable. Unlike their hosts, Lazio have had a full week to prepare since the Monza win.
Recent meetings have been tight. The last five league encounters ended 2-2, 1-0 to Lazio, 1-1, 1-0 to Juventus and 1-0 to Lazio, which means four of the five stayed under three goals. Lazio are unbeaten in the last three, but Juventus have a strong home record in the fixture: Lazio's most recent league win in Turin came back in the 2017/18 season. We expect Juventus to have more of the ball, with Lazio happy to defend compactly and break through Isaksen and Zaccagni. With both teams conceding fewer than a goal per game so far, clear chances are likely to be at a premium.
The main risk is an early goal. If either side goes ahead, the other has to open up, and that is how Juventus ended up in the 3-2 defeat at Sassuolo. Both teams also have forwards in form, and set pieces can turn a cagey game, as Bremer's headed winner against Atalanta showed. We considered backing Juventus to win, but Lazio's form and the hosts' midweek trip make the 1X2 market too uncertain for us. Both teams to score No was another option, but it loses on a 1-1, which is one of the most likely scorelines here. Under 2.5 goals covers 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1, the results that have dominated both teams' seasons and this fixture.
OddsCapo has Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 with Pinnacle, which corresponds to an implied probability of 51.3 per cent. Given the low-scoring trends on both sides, Juventus' short recovery after Thursday and the run of tight head-to-heads, we rate the chance of two goals or fewer at around 55 per cent. That's why we're backing Under 2.5 goals in Turin.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Sunday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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