Italy come into the autumn after a painful spring. The Azzurri lost the World Cup play-off final to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties after a 1-1 draw in March, which meant a third straight missed World Cup, and Gennaro Gattuso left the job. Caretaker Silvio Baldini then won two June friendlies 1-0, against Luxembourg and Greece, and Pio Esposito scored both goals. The FIGC brought Mancini back at the end of July. He has called up nine new players. Federico Dimarco has withdrawn injured and been replaced by Aston Villa's Matteo Ruggeri, and Marco Palestra is also injured. Italy scored plenty in qualifying but could be opened up: they won 5-4 away to Israel and lost 4-1 at home to Norway.
Belgium arrive in much better shape. The Red Devils reached the World Cup quarter-finals, where a late Mikel Merino goal gave Spain a 2-1 win. Before that, Belgium beat New Zealand 5-1, Senegal 3-2 after extra time and the USA 4-1. Rudi Garcia left after the tournament. Van Bommel has promised an attacking 4-3-3 with Kevin De Bruyne in a central role. Romelu Lukaku, now at Fenerbahçe, Leandro Trossard and Charles De Ketelaere are all in the squad, and Youri Tielemans stays on as captain. Thibaut Courtois has been left out by mutual agreement, and according to the latest reports Jérémy Doku is injured. At the World Cup, Belgium scored in five of their six matches and conceded in five of them.
Italy lead the all-time head-to-head clearly, but the recent meetings have been close and open. At the Olimpico in October 2024 the match ended 2-2 after Italy had led 2-0. Italy also won 2-1 in the Euro 2020 quarter-final and 2-1 in the 2021 Nations League third-place match. Both teams scored in three of the last four meetings. The only exception was Italy's 1-0 win in Brussels in November 2024. With two new coaches, a rebuilt Italian squad full of new names and a Belgian side set up to attack, we expect space at both ends.
The main risk is that first matches under new coaches are often cautious. Italy also kept clean sheets in their last three wins: 2-0 against Northern Ireland and the two 1-0 wins in June. An early Italian goal could lead the Azzurri to sit deep and protect the lead. Even so, we prefer this market to 1X2. Italy at 2.30 and Belgium at 3.30 point to an open match, and BTTS lets us back two teams with attacking quality and defensive question marks without having to pick a winner. That's why we're backing both teams to score rather than over 2.5 goals, which would also need a third goal.
The best price on both teams to score – Yes is 1.70 at Expekt, while No is priced around 2.15–2.30. Odds of 1.70 imply a probability of about 59 percent. Belgium's scoring and conceding record at the World Cup, Italy's leaky qualifying campaign and the recent head-to-head results make us rate the chance slightly higher. That gives the price some value, although the margin is small.
Betting tip: Both teams to score – Yes @ 1.70 (Expekt)
Odds were taken from OddsCapo on Thursday and may have changed. Always check the price with the bookmaker before you bet.
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