The teams
Inter have 25 points from ten games and have won all five home league matches, scoring 17 and conceding seven. The derby defeat by Milan ended a 19-match unbeaten league run, but they responded with a 3-0 win at Feyenoord on Tuesday. According to the latest reports, Lautaro Martínez misses out with a thigh injury and is not expected back until after the international break, and Luis Henrique is also out. That puts more weight on Marcus Thuram, who has five league goals, and Francesco Pio Esposito. Alessandro Bastoni is available again after a UEFA suspension.
Como have 23 points, a club record after ten games, and share the league's best defensive record with Lazio on eight conceded. They have taken 13 points from six away games. The squad is thinner than those numbers suggest: Moise Kean, Jesús Rodríguez, Jayden Addai and Assane Diao are all reported out, and Trevoh Chalobah is at best doubtful. Tasos Douvikas scored three in Wednesday's win at Lens, but Como have had a day less to recover than Inter.
Inter have won the last 11 Serie A meetings, and Fàbregas has lost all four of his league games against them. We do not lean heavily on a run that stretches across very different Como sides, but last season's games are relevant: Inter won 4-3 at Como in April and 3-2 in the cup semi-final the same month. Both teams average around 62 per cent possession, so this may turn on who wins the ball back higher up. Thuram has four goals in three league games against Como, while Douvikas has yet to score or assist in three league games against Inter.
Risks, odds and our bet
The obvious risk is Inter's defence. They have conceded 13 in the league, and Como have the creativity, led by Nico Paz, to punish any space. Without their captain Inter would also lose a proven finisher, and line-ups were not confirmed at the time of writing. A draw is a realistic outcome between two sides this close. That is why we prefer the Asian handicap to a straight home win: at -0.25 a draw costs only half the stake, while an Inter win pays in full.
A price of 1.79 with Pinnacle via OddsCapo implies 55.9 per cent. We give Inter a 52 per cent chance of winning and put the draw at 23 per cent, which makes the fair price on this line about 1.70, or close to 59 per cent. The margin is not large, but Inter's home form, the extra day of rest and Como's absences tip it their way. That's why we're backing Inter -0.25 on the Asian handicap.
Betting tip: Inter -0.25 @ 1.79 (Pinnacle)
